Alphadawg7

Yeah but all that came out like a week or two earlier. All good

All I’m saying is that was top money 2 years ago. That won’t be top money these next three years with the rising cap where well over 40 will be the norm for even lesser QBs. And he is there 4 years with this year and it averages out to about $35m per year over those 4 years. He is 13th best QB by my ranking and within a year or two his $40m salary will be in about that range compared to the rest of the NFL as other QBs get paid. So it’s not “top money” is all I’m saying as he’s gonna drop to around 10th highest paid pretty quickly as guys like Lamar, Murray, Hebert, etc start getting paid. All QBs are usually paid above their worth when they initially sign their deal. I don’t find his to be egregious based on where QB salaries are headed next two seasons.

Yeah, thats kind of where I am at too. I think those might be the only players they would move up for 10+ spots for, but its going to take one of them slipping far enough to get. Other than that, I do think Beane would pull the trigger on a move up for someone else, but I doubt its far enough where it would cost us more than a 3rd. Beane covets his premium picks.

Good thing they aren't paying him "top money" then. They paid him good money, not top money. I would say its a fair contract on both sides.

Agreed. And honestly, I think people are sleeping too much on the Raiders this year. They are the popular choice to finish 4th in their division, but I think they will challenge for a wild card spot and could push for the division this year. I mean all the other teams in their division have some questions about them heading into the season: KC has some struggles at times last year and now lost some key players, including one of its best players while every team in their division got significantly better on paper. Den adds Wilson, but he is coming off a down year. Will he bounce back to closer to his old form, or will it be more of the same. Can their WR's stay healthy? LAC added some needed defensive help, but will it be enough. They were bad in all 3 phases of defense last year and they just seem to still have that lack of clutch the Chargers always seem to lack. Can they find a way to win the tough and close games? While they seemed improved on paper, so do most their division mates, so will it be enough? On paper, its the toughest division I can ever remember seeing, so its hard to say who will emerge. Last year they proved through adversity they could grind out those gritty wins in tough close games. If that team shows up again, with Adams and Chandler now on the roster, they might not only be able to win a wild card spot, but possibly the division. Interesting futures bet: Raiders to win division at +700 I kind of like it.

Yeah, I think when you are in about that range there a couple guys that could slide here or there. And I wouldn't quibble over that either.

I will say this, I wasn't too high on Carr prior to last year. However, they did win quite a few games because of him, lots of late game heroics despite the coaching turmoil and a weak group of WR's with the exception of Renfrow. So I would say this is a good extension for the Raiders, it would be hard to upgrade from him and I would say he is better than above average. More like good, but not great. Personally I would take Carr over someone like Cousins. Agreed Bill...he isn't top 10, but I think he is certainly in the top 15. In no particular order, I would list them like this... Top 5: (In no particular order) Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Watson (until Watson shows me he is not top 5 on the field, I am going with what he had been before missing a year, and that was a top 5 QB, which I fully expect him to be again at some point after coming back). Top 6-10: (In no particular order) Herbert, Lamar, Wilson, Burrow, Stafford. Then I would go: 11 - Prescott 12 - Murray 13 - Carr Ryan and Cousins would round out the top 15 for me in which ever order, they are closely graded to me at this point.

Ha fixed it...it literally auto corrects to Anderson with the O every time I type his name. Sometimes I catch it, others I don't lol.

Yeah but neither McKissic or Duke were coming here to challenge Devin as the primary ball carrier, they are receiving RB specialists who can be a weapon for josh on screens, obvious passing downs, 3rd/4th and long conversion attempts. Neither was going to take many rush attempts Devin. Now if the Bills draft someone who would be a player to at least split carries with Devin and potentially take over lead duties next year when Devin is a FA, then I think that will obviously negatively impact Devin. But keep in mind, Devin only had 7 games last year where he got at least 13 carries, and 4 of them came in the last 6 games (reg season and playoffs). In those 7 games, he averaged over 80 yards per game rushing and had 7 TDs. Projected over a full season, that is about 1400 yards and 17 TDs. So I think McD and Beane are a bit higher on Devin than some people on this board. However, Devin is a FA next year, and Beane likely stays true to his board with BPA in the draft, so its certainly on the table he could take one of the premier RB prospects if there is one they covet. If I had to guess though, I think its more likely they draft more of that speedy receiving back, someone who is gonna push Duke Johnson to the waiver wire in pre season. Yeah but neither McKissic or Duke were coming here to challenge Devin as the primary ball carrier, they are receiving RB specialists who can be a weapon for josh on screens, obvious passing downs, 3rd/4th and long conversion attempts. Neither was going to take many rush attempts Devin. Now if the Bills draft someone who would be a player to at least split carries with Devin and potentially take over lead duties next year when Devin is a FA, then I think that will obviously negatively impact Devin. And keep in mind, Devin only had 7 games last year where he got at least 13 carries, and 4 of them came in the last 6 games (reg season and playoffs). In those 7 games, he averaged over 80 yards per game rushing, 4.7 ypc and had 7 TDs. Projected over a full season, that is about 1400 yards and 17 TDs. So I think McD and Beane are a bit higher on Devin than some people on this board. However, Devin is a FA next year, and Beane likely stays true to his board with BPA in the draft, so its certainly on the table he could take one of the premier RB prospects if there is one they covet. If I had to guess though, I think its more likely they draft more of that speedy receiving back, someone who is gonna push Duke Johnson to the waiver wire in pre season. Yeah but neither McKissic or Duke were coming here to challenge Devin as the primary ball carrier, they are receiving RB specialists who can be a weapon for josh on screens, obvious passing downs, 3rd/4th and long conversion attempts. Neither was going to take many rush attempts Devin. Now if the Bills draft someone who would be a player to at least split carries with Devin and potentially take over lead duties next year when Devin is a FA, then I think that will obviously negatively impact Devin. And keep in mind, Devin only had 7 games last year where he got at least 13 carries, and 4 of them came in the last 6 games (reg season and playoffs). In those 7 games, he averaged over 80 yards per game rushing, 4.7 ypc and had 7 TDs. Projected over a full season, that is about 1400 yards and 17 TDs. So I think McD and Beane are a bit higher on Devin than some people on this board. However, Devin is a FA next year, and Beane likely stays true to his board with BPA in the draft, so its certainly on the table he could take one of the premier RB prospects if there is one they covet. If I had to guess though, I think its more likely they draft more of that speedy receiving back, someone who is gonna push Duke Johnson to the waiver wire in pre season.

Ascending: Greg Rousseau - With this revamped line in the trenches and Von Miller, I think he is in line for a breakout year. Was going to say Gabriel Davis, but I think he's kind of already broke out to a degree, and Rousseau has further to "ascend" so going with him. Descending: Tre White - (JUST THIS SEASON) I am only talking about what I expect from him this season. I think he will still be good for us, but I am skeptical he gets all the way back to his peak form during this season. Often takes a player getting through a season to get through both the mental and physical hurdles of coming back from this kind of injury. So I think while he will still be our starter and a good starter when he gets back, but I think we are going to see him struggle a bit more than we are used to at times, especially with some of the faster WRs until he truly gets back all the way from the injury. Shocking: Devin Singletary runs for 1200+ yards and double digit TDs. When Devin got at least 13 carries last season (7 Games, 5 of them down the stretch and playoffs) he averaged 81.43 YPG, 4.7 YPC with 7 TDS in 7 Games...which projected over a full season would be almost 1400 yards and 17 TDs. As we sit right now, Devin is easily in line IMHO for at least 13 carries a game, and that number could jump considering in 4 out of his last 6 games last season and playoffs, he had between 16 and 22 carries. The only thing where this could change is if Bills somewhat surprise and take a RB early this year where Devin is maybe splitting carries as the season goes on with another lead back level RB. But if Devin is still the clear featured RB after the draft and come week 1, then I think he is in store for a season that will shock a lot of people around here. Packing: Zack Moss: I was wrestling with Cody Ford and Zach Moss here...I went Moss for 2 reasons...1 the Bills seem to be looking at a number of RB's in the draft right now, and 2 we brought in Kromer which I think might give Ford a little bit longer leash to see if Kromer can mold something out of him. But both are questionable to make the final roster week 1 right now IMHO. If we draft a RB, then I just don't see how Moss sticks around given he doesn't do anything better than Devin, nor does he do anything that Devin can't also do. I think both are potential trade candidates and both are guys Beane can probably get something for.

I don't think anything happens with Edmunds this year. I seriously doubt they would replace the QB of the defense (and both McD and Beane have praised Edmunds for his play and doing what he is asked to do) with a rookie on a learning not only how to play in the NFL, but also how to dissect plays pre snap and direct the defense accordingly. That being said, taking a rookie now to potentially replace him next year is not out of the question. Just doubt they would take a rookie and then trade Edmunds this year like some have speculated here.

I personally think guys like Tariq Woolen and Troy Anderson are the type of players Beane and McD both like.

Honestly, Watson is a top 5 QB himself. People writing him off after a season off is puzzling to me, he is legit top 5 until he shows me something on the field that says he isn't the same guy. Allen obviously is top 5 and a case can be made he is number 1. Top 4 are without debate in no particular order Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers and Brady (assuming Brady keeps up the level of play he had last year again). As good as Allen is, there are just people who are not going to accept it until he has the resume which needs to include a SB win and probably an MVP...two things that both have a good chance of happening this season. I have to say though, Burrow is a joke to list ahead of Allen. Can you even make a case for Burrow being top in the 5 just the AFC even right now? I mean in no particular order: In the AFC alone you have Allen, Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, Hebert, Lamar, Burrow, etc. If I had to pick the best 5 in just the AFC, Burrow is 6th. I would go Allen, Mahomes, Watson, Hebert, Wilson, then Burrow...but you can make a case for Lamar at 5 or 6 too. There isn't anything Burrow is better at than Allen IMHO, and certainly not better than him overall. Burrow is still getting better presumably, so he can close the gap, but today he is not on the same level as Allen. Allen throws lasers, dimes, etc. Burrow throws a lot of prayer balls to elite receivers who make insane plays. Allen makes throws Burrow will never be able to make, and Allen is a superior athlete and runner with superior escapability. Again, not saying Burrow wont become a top 5 QB overall in the NFL, just saying he is arguably not even top 5 in the AFC today while Allen is easily one of the best overall in the game, and has a case for the best QB right now. Just because the Bengals, as a TEAM, surprised and made the SB, Burrow is getting over exaggerated in terms of where he ranks against his peers.

Honestly, I think it has a lot to do with how they play this year in some of those cases. Edmunds - With the revamped DL this year, it could set Edmunds up for his best season yet. We have more speed, more beef, and better closers in front of him now, that always makes the MLBs job easier. So what he does this season will be interesting, does he step his game up or is it more of the same? And the bigger question too is if he does have his best season, what will that do to his price tag if they do want to resign him. Poyer - I think they are already planning for life after Poyer potentially given the number of safeties they seem to have spoken to or met with in this draft. The combination of his age and price tag I think could make him a cap casualty. However, the odds for him staying go up if we don't resign Edmunds. Oliver - Coming off his best season as a pro, he could be in line for an even better season. Oliver is at that point where this is probably the year he proves he is worth resigning and paying to keep long term or not. And he is really set up now to have his best year yet with our new revamped DL looking so promising overall. So he is another guy whose future I think is in how he follows up his breakout season last year. Now you have other guys who are already under contract in Hyde, White, Milano, and Miller. Personally, I don't know what kind of cap ramifications moving on from any of them would have, so hard to say if they would consider moving on early from either of those guys without knowing that. But if I had to guess, I think these 4 guys got a good chance to stick around. Miller just signed, so obvious he is here a few years. Hyde I think there is a good chance he will see the end of his extension (2 more years). White isn't going anywhere as long he is gets back to at least close to what he was before the injury, and Milano I would think sees the end of his extension too, especially if they don't keep Edmunds. With the cap rising so much next year the salaries of Hyde, Milano, and White are going to be seen as good deals compared to what some of the FA's are going to be getting of similar quality players I suspect. Likely leaves: Poyer Likely stays: Oliver Coin flip as of today: Edmunds

Anything is possible, but I personally think Anderson will go in round 2 or 3 and would be surprised if lasted until the 4th. I do think he fits a lot of what Beane and McD covet, so wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a Bill after the draft.

Isnt this like old news from a week or two ago?

Agreed, and I am pretty sure every GM in the NFL has the same feelings about the QB position. I agree and somewhat disagree here. What I don't like is the "NEVER" statement, which I just don't think is applicable here. And the reason for that, the tiers are all subjective, especially once you are out of the top 10 picks where they really get murky. What one teams sees as reaching down a tier another may see as the BPA. I mean one team might see the same 2 prospects a closely graded and another think they are in 2 separate tiers. And this happens all the time. I get why you cited the Cowboys there as an example, but I am not sure it was so cut and dry. Lamb was by far the consensus top player on the board on their pick, so thats accurate to say they took the highest graded guy when it wasn't a big need. But I don't think that was the "why"...Jones always prioritizes offense and I think he was drooling at the chance to draft one of the big 3 WR's even before the draft started. I mean they even talked about it ahead of the draft, most mocks had them even taking a WR, just varied on which one depending which ones went first. So I think it was more to do with "want" than must take him based on draft grade. And while Gallup had put some numbers up, there had never really been anything special about him either, as in they weren't enamored with him. Agreed, and Beane has said as much himself. He also factors in depth of the position too. If one of those positions really falls off after this pick and the other has other prospects they feel they like and can in the next rounds, they will factor that in and potentially take the guy whose position really falls off after this pick. Something Beane has also said. Agreed - Those later rounds they are also looking for ST contributions as well, guys who may not make the roster just off their natural position but could make the roster through special teams. Raiders under Gruden and Mayock also reached a lot early. Overall good post Gunner, and agreed with most as you saw. And I too have people I have known that have spent time in draft war rooms who echo all the same things.

3 picks in the first 2 rounds and no CB? Don't see that happening at all, one of them would definitely be a CB. I get the logic, but I am skeptical they would trade Edmunds, who is the QB of our defense, in the middle of major SB run this season and turn that complicated position over to a rookie. That doesn't sound like McD or Beanes style personally. They also haven't met with a lot of LB's either. One guys they did meet with is Troy Anderson, who is the fastest LB in this draft, raw having just recently converted to LB and versatile playing positions even like QB and RB in college. Everything about him seems to be what McD and Beane love in players. Wouldn't surprise me if we took him in the 2nd or 3rd round regardless of what their intent is with Edmunds.

I’m just here for the comments as this is gonna go over well 😂

Well said, and pretty close to what goes down in most cases and Beane has even publicly said as much multiple times now. My only critiques is that its not as cut and dry as that. They wont "always" for example take the need, in your example the CB over a WR they have slightly higher. Beane factors in depth of the positions too. If they feel CB is thinner than WR in the next rounds, then that is when they would take the CB over the slightly higher graded WR more often. But if they felt WR dropped off after that, they would likely stick with the WR over the CB if they felt they could get a CB later they also like. I mean Beane has said that BPA takes into consideration team needs many times now. He has also said depth of each position comes into play too. I mean BPA always factors team needs in, that is 100% fact across the NFL. I mean wouldn't you agree that we 100% are NOT drafting a QB at 25 no matter who is there? So without question, needs are always to some degree a part of a general managers and teams draft strategy where they eliminate certain positions and prioritize other positions at certain points in the draft. Does NOT mean they will reach for need, just means their board of BPA includes factors such as draft strategy, needs, depth of draft, priorities, coveted targets, draft assets, potential trade scenarios, etc. I mean Beane literally just did this last draft. He went DE and DE again in the 2nd...not many people had Boogie as BPA when we were on the clock, nor did anyone expect that pick after going DE in round 1. Yet Beane said they entered the draft with the mindset pass rush was the biggest need on the team, and they went out and made that such a priority they took 2 in a row in the first 2 rounds. So sorry, PrimeTime101 has mostly the right idea here. And how do we know, because its literally what Beane has both said and done in the past.

I have not given up on Moss, nor should anyone else at this point. Does that mean he will breakout? No, just means there is still potential there as he has been given few opportunities, and most occurred early on. In those earlier opportunities he showed some promise, but in 2021 Devin really started to seize control of the primary ball carrier duties, and rightfully so (and I even predicted this in the preseason, he is just simply the better RB). But Moss still has potential to be a contributing RB, and probably best suited for a 2 back system where the second RB was a speedy receiving back. Something like the Saints with Kamara or Atlanta with Patterson. Again, doesn't automatically mean he would excel in a situation like that, just saying I wouldn't rule him out as being someone who could do well as part of a 1-2 punch like that. Now, that being said, I do not think he is better than Devin at this stage, so I have kind of written him off being a contributor here in Buffalo. And for me, he is a guy who has a good chance of being traded sometime during this offseason. And if we do end up drafting a RB, he could end up being cut as well if they don't find a trade partner. I could see a team that needs RB depth or someone to compete for the #1 RB spot look into Moss's availability. Teams that would make some sense: Houston, Giants, Jets, Falcons, Seattle, AZ, Ravens, Saints, etc. Some of these teams he could compete as a primary or early down ball carrier and others he could be some insurance behind some RB's who have struggled with injuries. And honestly, I do think there is a real possibility he is not on the roster week 1, and mainly because Bills have reportedly shown interest in potential RB trades this offseason and have been bringing various RB's in for pre draft visits. So certainly feels like they are looking to add someone, and I highly doubt Duke Johnson fills that need for them. If we draft someone in the first 4 rounds, I think that would almost seal Moss's fate of not being here come week 1.

Yeah, there is no way he falls to the 6th or 7th. I doubt he falls past the 3rd. You never know with RB's, so maybe he shockingly falls to the 4th, but even that seems far fetched. My guess he goes late 2nd or somewhere in the 3rd round.

The he is "average" at everything is being overly exaggerated and IMHO a poor description of him as a player. He has 3 down back potential at the next level, is faster than the RB's on our roster, and can catch out of the backfield. I am not advocating for him, but the reality is this is also Devins last year on his contract, if we aren't sold on Devin long term to retain him, someone like Spiller could be an attractive replacement, especially if we can get him in the 3rd. Ive seen him going all over the place between 2nd and 3rd rounds in mocks. Personally, I don't think Spiller would come into play unless we were in the 3rd round and could steal him there. Maybe they pull the trigger on a Hall or Walker if they are there in the 2nd, just gonna depend on who Beane has as his BPA when we are on the clock. Plus, there are some interesting prospects we can likely nab in 3rd or 4th if Beane wants to add a back this year.

Question mark on when he will be ready, and how long to find his form. And sorry, we don’t have any CB depth, the guys behind Dane aren’t worthy of starting and will struggle to even make the roster.

Literally no one is saying that, at least I haven’t seen anyone say that. You are however saying offense no matter what, the rest of us are saying CB is our biggest need, and a first round CB makes sense if the right one is there. I mean I’ve literally said this to you several times now, but you keep falsely insisting the people in favor of a CB wanna us to take one no matter what, which I haven’t seen anyone say that other than you. Our pick will be BPA, so who we take will largely depend on how the draft falls. I mean even what you just agreed with Bill on I already said to you earlier too lol.