Alphadawg7

How many Vegas odds threads do we need before people realize how utterly meaningless they are? I just paid my bookie hundreds of dollars form all the lost bets on Allen winning MVP this year, Bills winning AFCCG and Bills winning Super Bowl. All 3 were heavy favorites when I made the bets. It means nothing. It doesn't suddenly mask all our issues: Poyer, Devin, and Edmunds are FA and some or all of them won't be back creating more holes to fill as neither of those 3's heir apparent is currently on the roster. Our two best and most expensive players on Defense are coming off ACL issues, and one is 34 and the other was not close to himself this year. Our OL needs a complete rebuild. We have no one outside of Diggs that Allen can rely on and need to add at least one more legit weapon to the WR group. Our DC now has watched his #1 and #2 ranked defense get embarrassed in playoff losses and somehow seems to keep his job. Our OC is inexperienced and showed he lacks in creativity, situational awareness, utilizing his players to the best of their skill sets, and how to scheme guys open. Its a night and day difference when you watch other teams like Cincy, KC, and Philly and how they run their respective offenses. We presumably also need a RB as no one expects Devin back and Cook isn't an every down RB as he doesn't have the size or power to pick up tough yards or excel in bad weather. Meanwhile...all 3 of the teams in our division are already somewhat of a threat, all 3 have the cap space or draft ammo to close the gap. Heck, there is some talk Jets could land Rodgers which instantly makes them a massive threat. Plus Cincy has a ton of cap space, and they played us like they are already ahead of us, so they could widen the gap while we just try and maintain. I am not a doom and gloom guy...I am not saying we can't get this offseason right and get over the hump next year. I am saying, odds mean nothing this time of year and they absolutely do not erase the challenges ahead of us. This team has legit things in front of it that are not going to be easy to navigate for Beane. This is easily his most crucial offseason, he has nothing in the war chest to make a big swing with, he is going to have nail his free agency decisions and get quality contributions from the rookie class. Beane can very well do that, I have a lot of confidence in Beane, but this is a tall task for even the best GM's to take on in one offseason, so it won't be easy.

There is a difference of people rationally discussing the honest things that need to improve vs a total hysterical flip out and declaring the end before the new season even begins. I agree, the board was impossible to be around the week after the game. I myself took some time to let the disappointment calm down before I came back to what was surely going to be a cess pool of negativity...which it was. But I do think that has died down quite a bit and there are a lot more quality conversations going on now regarding this team strengths and weaknesses. The overly negative crowd is never going away, but I think their nonsense is starting to get drowned out by better convos lately. This team will always be a contender with an elite player like Josh and a GM committed to building a winner. Doesn't mean all the right decisions, plays, etc will be just right, but we will be someone to contend with for the foreseeable future. The question is what is keeping this team from getting over that hump and what can we do to change that before other teams keep improving around us as they try and over take us. Those are all fair questions heading into an offseason where we were 13-3 (8 points from being undefeated) and then laid down like we were the 7th seed despite being at home, with motivation (Hamlin), in bad weather (allegedly an advantage for us), with our opponent having a decimated OL. We can't keep doing the same things and expecting different results.

I respect the greatness that is Mahomes. I don't harbor any hostility because he has gotten the job done. Where I get annoyed is when people want to annoit Burrow over Allen when Burrow has not won anything yet, just like Allen. Put Allen on Cincy or KC and he shatters the NFL total yards record by at least 500 yards. Allen is without question the 2nd best QB in the NFL, he can do things no one else can do, even over Mahomes (more so with his legs as they can both do everything each other can with their arms). But Allen is saddled with a terrible OL, no one outside Diggs to rely on, and most importantly an OC who was clueless in so many areas. Just watching both the Eagles and Chiefs this post season, its stunning how much more creativity their offensive play calling has. Its stunning how much more significantly their offenses utilize the players strengths on their respective offenses. It's stunning how easy it is for them to scheme guys open. I have never been a fire them guy...I like continuity unless the person is clearly not the right person for the job. Frazier has proven that already, I want to move on from him. Dorsey has only been an OC one year, so he has plenty of room to grow...BUT...WHY GAMBLE ALLEN AND DIGGS PRIME YEARS on an inexperienced OC who has to learn on the job that just struggled with all the things above and showed really bad situational awareness as well in how he called games? Dorsey may go on to be a great OC, maybe a great HC one day...but he is NOT there yet. This is a Super Bowl ready team, it should be in the hands of someone who has already learned on the job and has the PROVEN playbook to take the offense to the next level.

Dump our coordinators and get a DC who plays a better style and an OC who actually is creative, uses their personnel to their strengths, and understands how to scheme guys open like KC and Philly.

Do I remember? LOL...I have watched it dozens of times since lol. Dr. Dre, Snoop, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and one of my all time faves that doesn't get enough love...Mary J. Blige. I live in LA, I have been a big fan of every artist that hit that stage last year. They represent the greatness of hip hop unlike a lot of the garbage being put out today in rap music. For example, the Grammy's 50th anniversary of the birth of hip hop tribute this year was a stark reminder to the golden years of hip hop and how the new generation of rap falls short in comparison. I am not just a fan of hip hop though (a lot of rap these days absolutely blows by the way). love all kinds of music, even classic rock, hard rock, etc. Just not a fan of Country. My absolute favorite band right now is St. Paul and the Broken Bones, even got married to one of their songs. Paul Janeway may be the best male vocalist in all of music and their live show is one of the best I have even seen and I have seen them several times now.

Im not the biggest Rihanna fan either even though I have touched her boob haha. It was at Coachella when her security was propping her up and carrying her out of the VIP area of Kendrick Lamar where I was watching Kendrick. She was destroyed and as her security team propped her up (one on each arm) and pushed passed me her boob hit me in my upper arm as they pushed their way through the crowd 5 min into Kendricks set to get her out. She was just saying as her head bobbed all over the place "Take picture b***hes, take pictures" to everyone in the crowd lol. She was a mess. That was like 5 or 6 years ago. But I thought she did a great job at the SB, the visuals and the floating stage were great and was a cool way to show off her baby bump. I thought she did great considering not being on stage since 2018 after starting a family. And I have definitely seen a lot worse shows than hers at the SB. I also do not like the Weekend much...Ive been to at least 10 coachellas and two of the absolute most boring performances I saw amongst the headliners were easily The Weekend (first Coachella performance) and also Drake. Both were so lame. Ice Cube, AD/DC, Eminem, Lady Gaga, Beyonce, Pharrel, Run the Jewels, etc (just to name a few) all were exceptional at Coachella. I like most every kind of music except Country.

Let me rephrase...most everyone around the world outside the majority on this board loved last years performance.

Shocker this board didn’t like the halftime show. Every year, this board of old wet blankets starts all these threads about hating the halftime show even when it’s mostly regarded as great. I feel like the only halftime show that would get any positive threads here would be some old timer artist or band. Anything other than that and this board revolts lol. Last years halftime show won an Emmy, board still hated it lol.

But they can’t put every player on there. Not like the others aren’t worthy. This is just trying to read into something

Yes you are missing something because she killed it.

This is just a hot take. What happened the last time the Chiefs were in the SB? Bucs D held them to 9 points and smashed them. You can’t make wild declarations off one game and say that is the best way. Pats record breaking undefeated offense scored 19 points and lost to Giants. Broncos broke all offensive records shortly after and got smashed by Seahawks 42-8 in the Super Bowl. 3 of the top 5 offenses all time lost bad in the Super Bowl and averaged 13 points per game. That being said…FRAZIER is so weak, that I agree, save the money and spend it all on offense. Not because of this Super Bowl, but because it doesn’t matter how good the defense is, Frazier is gonna lay down in the playoffs regardless. So spend all our money on the OL and weapons for Josh.

Thanks, and to answer your question, no not at all. McD and Beane want it as bad as we do. So I do not think it has anything to do with using him as a scapegoat. You can see how much the teams success means to this regime, they are both very connected to Buffalo. I have zero doubt that they will make what they feel is the best decisions. Doesn’t mean every decision will be correct, but I have full confidence that each decision is being made on what they believe is going to be best for the team.

Let me clarify…when I said having little to do with it, I was directly referencing the #2 ranked regular season defense. Hyde missed the majority of the year and Von missed the last half, we were still the #2 ranked D. Not to me thin how many injuries we had during the season…still finishing 2nd. So I was saying in terms of the players who contributed the most to the #2 ranking in regular season, they were mostly out there during Bengals game, and we also got Tre back. So there was no excuse for them to play like the 32nd ranked team when they managed the #2 ranking over a whole season while those guys missed large parts of the season as well as all the injuries in season.

Non Story. Just his brother wishing for something that won't happen. Diggs take a cap hit of over $17M if they traded Diggs before 6/1 and only save $8M if the trade him after 6/1 and basically save nothing in 2024. Literally impossible to replace Diggs with that $8M in savings, and this offense already needs more help, not less. If Stefon felt playing with his brother is what he wanted the most and the priority, he would not have signed an extension that basically keeps him in Buffalo until the end of his career. Stefon has said many times how much he loves Allen and that Allen basically saved his career in his eyes. Its funny to me to see people see that little moment on the sidelines and suddenly think Diggs doesn't believe in Allen anymore. Side Note: There were some people reporting he they could hear Diggs yelling at Allen "Don't listen to him" or something to that nature. And that someone is believed to be Dorsey based on the context of what could be heard from the sidelines. Which if true, would be Diggs frustrated with Dorsey's play calling and begging Allen to try something different. This didn't even need a thread to be honest...he isn't going anywhere, there are no actual rumors, just his brother vocalizing he wants to will his brother to Dallas, which for all the reasons above, will not be happening anytime soon.

I get Hodgins had some success on the field this year in terms of TD's. But he is not a great starting WR for one, he has little down field ability. He is role playing possession receiver at best. He was not the savior we needed this year because he didn't play offensive line, which was the biggest issue we had. Take Robert Foster for instance...when we had a bad WR group, someone had to play and catch the ball. But ultimately he wasn't a guy who stuck anywhere as a full time WR, he wasn't even used here the next year despite being on the roster. So I don't lose any sleep over Hodgins, he wouldn't likely even seen the field much if the Giants had anything resembling a WR core when they brought him in. Once Giants rebuild that WR room, Hodgins is going to be down on the depth chart again and battling for a reserve role like he was here. Unfortunately for Hodgins, he brings very little to Special Teams, which will make his reserve role battle that much more intense. Daboll doesn't bother me cuz he was always going to leave for a HC gig, so happy to see him have some early success and finally learn how to use a damn RB.

Good questions...some of those FA guys you cited were brought in during the early years for short periods during rebuilding. I won't hold too much of that against Beane. He has done a great job over his tenure of building an annual super bowl contender after 20 years of being a doormat. But your question...is it talent or scheme. Well lets look at a couple things. First, AJE was a projected first round pick, and many thought mid first round. Taking him in the 2nd was an absolute no brainer, run to the podium moment. Any team in our spot needed a DE like we were was gonna take AJE there in the 2nd. So can not fault Beane for that. And a lot of people don't realize that AJE had 6.5 sacks this year as a rotational player, makes you wonder how many he could have had if we given more reps and turned loose more. Jerry Hughes only managed to best that 2 times over his whole career as a full time starter in buffalo (7 and 9 sack seasons). Now let's talk more on Jerry Hughes...Last 3 years he had 4.5 sacks, 4.5 sacks, and 2 sacks last year. Most people thought he was washed...but he goes to Houston and manages to match his career high of 9 sacks in his first year on a bad team. 11 sacks here over his last 3 years total...9 sacks there. To me, this is one of many indicators that it's our system more than anything. Last year, Chiefs scored 42 points on us and we couldn't sniff Mahomes in the pocket...so much so Beane spent a Billion dollars on Von Miller to be here 25 years to rectify that. Well, we had the #1 ranked defense last year, and as a team had 42 sacks. Bengals however also had 42 sacks and were the 16th ranked defense. Yet the Bengals the very next week were able to pressure Mahomes and get to him and shut that offense down in the 2nd half to beat them and move on to the Super Bowl. So why was a team that was no better than us at getting to the QB, whose overall team defense was 16th compared to our #1 ranked D, able to have so much more success against KC? Same thing this year...Bengals move the ball on us with ease in severe weather after we fielded the #2 ranked defense. The following week the 17th ranked Chiefs held the same Bengals team in check and moved on to the Super Bowl. How much better can our defense be other being ranked #1 and #2 in the NFL? I mean there is no excuse to keep getting smashed in the playoffs when fielding top end defenses. At some point, you have to step back and look at what others are doing against common opponents and realize they have a better scheme, game plan, and play calls to get past those teams than we do. So for me...I think it is more scheme and Frazier than anything else.

Thanks, and yeah, I agree with all this. Injuries hurt us this year during the season for sure. But honestly, injuries had very little to do with our embarrassing loss to Bengals. Hyde was out most the season and we were the #2 D without him, and that was with Von missing almost the whole last half of the season too. So the defense that managed to maintain the #2 ranking for the last half of the season was pretty much on the field that game. And our offense wasn't suffering from any significant injury issues. Bengals just flat out dominated us. And you touched on one of the reasons why above...we need better coaching. I am not referring to McD, who I still have confidence in. But our coordinators I felt were atrocious in that game and not only was the game plan flawed, but the play calling was terrible and I can site many examples of that. The second major issue that game was the weather. So many fans falsely believe that the severe weather at home is some kind of "advantage" over other teams. Not only is that absolutely not true, I would make the case it's a disadvantage for us. First off, both Mahomes and Burrow are fully capable of playing in bad weather, so we gain nothing there. But the rest of our team make up, schemes, etc is that of a dome team. On offense, we are an air out, long ball offense who lacks any kind of consistent run game with a terrible OL. On defense, we play a style of bend, don't break, and already give offensive players a cushion. When running in the snow, offensive players (because they know where they are going) already have an advantage over a defender because it's slower and harder to plant and react quickly. But its compounded by our defensive scheme because our style already plays off the ball. And to compound that even further than that, Frazier tends to give an even bigger cushion at times because he is always afraid of getting beat deep while he lets guys like Mahomes and Burrow pick us apart in the short to mid range.

There is a MASSIVE difference of saying we are done and being concerned we will be able to make enough moves to get ahead of KC and Bengals next year. All these snarky comments about "how is this possible, I read we are done on here" type things in this thread are very short sighted. Just because someone looks at the road ahead and sees the potential concerns does NOT mean everyone thinks the team is done. If someone can't sit back and take an honest accounting of where we are at, that is on them. Reality: We have 3 key starters up for Free Agency in Edmunds, Poyer, and Devin. We do not know who will be back, if any, and the replacements for those that leave are not currently on this roster. Our 2 best players on the defense (Tre and Von) are coming off ACL issues where Tre already showed he wasn't yet the same player, and now we are going to see Von try and come back from the same injury at 34 years old. So major questions about how good they can be next year despite being 2 of our most expensive and key players. Our OL is in terrible shape and has its own question marks. Will Morse be cut or even retire? Both possibilities given his contract and cap savings if we cut him and also his concussion issues. Is Brown really being looked at as the starter next year or will they bring in competition? The OL needs a LOT of help. Weapons for Josh are in need of an upgrade. Looks like Frazier and Dorsey are going to be back most likely...both were atrocious in the Bengals game. Dorsey was in his first year, so there is hope for improvement. Hard to see Frazier as a guy who is going to make changes and get better given his defense has folded like a lawn chair 3 straight years in playoff losses. Our Schedule and the AFC in general: Schedule - 10 of our 17 games next year are against teams in the playoffs this year, including both Super Bowl teams and the Bengals. Division - Every team in our division are potentially tough opponents and contenders to make the playoffs next season. All 3 have no big QB contracts and are able to spend more to try and close the gap further with the Bills. AFC - Around the AFC there are some young ascending teams like Jags. KC is still KC. And Bengals have a TON of cap space to get even better this offseason. So sorry...being the 3rd ranked best Super Bowl odds really means very little. The reality is that this is probably the biggest offseason of Beane's tenure since drafting Allen in terms of needing to get it right. He doesn't have the war chest to make a lot of big moves. Our cap is tight, we pick late in the rounds, and only have 6 draft picks. The good news is we still have a good roster overall and still more importantly have Allen and Diggs. If Beane can make the right free agency decisions this year and get some good production from the rookie class next year, we very well could cement ourselves right there again with KC and Bengals as the biggest threats out of the AFC. But the margin for error is smaller than its ever been for Beane this year, and that is a tall task for even the best GM's. I do trust Beane and have confidence in him. So pointing out what is concerning does not mean its guaranteed doom and gloom. Its about being a realist to what we are up against and what it will take to stay ahead of those behind us and over take those in front of us. Beane is capable of doing it, but it won't be an easy feat to pull off in one offseason.

Would it though? He has not resembled the player he once showed promise to be on his way to becoming since the injury. There is also some grumblings about just how much he loves football or how committed to it he is. Nobody knows him better than his organization, so if they don't feel like this is a guy to build around or just isn't proving within the organization he is worth that 5th year option, then it's not really a mistake. A lot of people thought (myself included) that not picking of Watkins 5th year option here in Buffalo was a huge mistake. Beane proved that our front office and coaching staff had a much better picture of whether or not Sammy was worth keeping than us posters on this board. Another example that was discussed a lot here on this board was Josh Rosen when AZ traded him after 1 season. A lot of people here, including a lot of popular posters like GunnerBill (not me, I hated Rosen even before the draft) thought Arizona were fools for giving up on Josh Rosen after one year...AZ showed they knew who he was better than posters here did. Thats the life of being a fan rather than an insider. We have all disagreed with a teams decision thinking it was dumb...sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong. But often, when you are talking about a highly drafted and high profile player that a team is ready to move on from earlier than expected, there is usually good reasons that come to light after the fact. I will say this, most Washington fans I know are ready to move on from Young too and hope they trade him this offseason before he goes out next year and further kills his value with another disappointing season. They figure he still gets a little benefit of the doubt now, like maybe he just took longer to get all the way back from the injury 2 years ago. But if he doesn't perform well again next year, he will have very little value.

Yup, this is my point. With all the money we spent and draft picks invested...its netted us the #1 and #2 defense the last 2 years. At first glance, looks like a huge payoff and worth it. Then you look at Fraziers last 3 playoff losses and realize this same regular season hero defense has been atrocious and given up 107 points and 1403 yards in those 3 losses. Yet last year Bengals got through KC (same team that trounced us) with a defense ranked 16th (compared to our #1 ranked D) that was also tied with us in sacks at 42. Then this year, KC's 17th ranked Defense got through the Bengals team that had its way with our Defense. Both teams made the Super Bowl with their 16th and 17th ranked defense despite going through 2 power house offenses to get there. So since Frazier can't take those better ranked defenses and get the job done, spend the money on the offense and let Allen come in and outscore those teams like he basically did last year until Frazier and the D folded like a lawn chain in 13 seconds and OT.

Well Milano’s deal was done a couple years ago. Not a fair comparison to what Milano would get if he was a free agent today. Not advocating for a deal this big for Edmunds, just saying can’t compare this years market to one a while back, prices are just different. As far as Edmunds goes, I won’t be pissed if he is brought back, but with Frazier here I don’t see the point in spending more big money on defense. Free up all that cap space and put it into the offense and help and protect Josh. Frazier has had the #1 and #2 ranked defenses the last 2 years and still folded like a lawn chair in the playoffs. So I am at a point where it doesn’t matter who we put on the field, with Frazier here the defense is going to get smashed again in the playoffs. So invest heavy into the offense to make sure we out score them.

Less is still too expensive. Not like he’s gonna sign for $4M or something. He’s still gonna get more money than we can afford to spend on a RB. AND he’s a dome RB! We got small RBs who can’t pick up tough yards. We need guys who can run in the snow when the snow neutralizes their speed and cutting advantage. He isn’t the kind of tough runner who will excel in bad weather, and he can’t stay healthy either.

Honestly, this kind of stuff is pretty common. I have had it happen to me many times across many things. Without thinking about it too hard, I could probably list at least a dozen examples related sports, entertainment, etc where I have met someone who was connected to, friends with, or family to some type of major celebrity or athlete and they were very chatty with info not known to the public. They aren't anybody...but when they can say there are so and so's Uncle, friend, cousin, whatever they suddenly get a little bit of that spotlight and get chatty for attention. Now, in terms of this post...lets assume this story is true, that doesn't mean Edmunds uncle really had the details correct or that things can't still change. A lot of these guys talk like they know more sometimes than they do, again getting back to liking the attention of people being interested in what they are saying. It could be that is what Edmunds and his team are trying to get and his Uncle chatting it up like its a done deal for example. So while I do think its plausible, probably even likely, someone met this guy claiming to be Edmunds uncle. That doesn't mean the words his uncle said are always going to be totally accurate either.

I do not think the combo of Frazier and Dorsey are the right people to man those positions. That is the main significant change I wish would have happened, but neither looks like it will happen. Running it back with those guys makes this the first offseason in the McD/Beane/Allen era where I am concerned about the next season. Frazier - I already made my case as to what I am fed up with about him in the other thread I started. So won't repeat that all here. Dorsey - He gets somewhat of a pass given he is a first year OC. But there is kind of the rub...why are we risking Josh Allens prime and our best SB chances in 20+ years on an inexperienced OC? My biggest gripe about the job he did was he seemed clueless on the style of offense to run based on the roster pieces in place. We only had 2 legit WR's in Diggs and Davis, and like 37 slot WR's on this team...but yet our passing offense was focused heavily on pushing the ball down field. We draft Cook specifically to be a pass catching RB, then we barely use him in that capacity. Then we often run draws with Cook in the run game despite the fact he goes down if someone farts near him. He is talented player who excels in space...so we are running him up the middle? And he completely left Knox out of the game plan the first half of the year in terms of the passing attack, which was clearly a mistake given how valuable of a TD machine he showed once they started using him more. Don't even get me started on his redzone play calling or his situational awareness which was pretty bad most the time. BUT, at least there is hope Dorsey can tighten things up and improve given it was just his first year, and there were some good things he did too. Frazier though...how can anyone expect anything different from him when year after year his defense gets embarrassed in the playoffs? Which is why I have made a much stronger case that we need to go in a different direction at DC given Frazier's contract is up.

Agree with most all this...I would also trade Oliver ahead of the draft personally. Not because he is a bad player, but he just does not succeed consistently enough and also relies heavily on those around him to succeed. So I can not see him being worth the investment next year. Worst case, if they can't get at least a 3rd rounder for him, I suppose they can run it back and let him leave in FA and try and recoup a 3rd rounder that way. Absolutely bring Shaq back, I think Phillips signed a 2 year deal if I am not mistaken, so I think he is already back. If I am wrong, then yes bring him back too. Not sure Hughes is the right answer to bring back. I think you gotta stick with the youth, and for as much flack as AJE gets, people don't seem to realize he had 6.5 sacks here this year in limited playing time. Hughes only had more than that like 3 times his whole career. I don't think you can trade Basham yet, not until they know when Von is going to be ready as we will need the depth and he is on a rookie contract and cheap.