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Everything posted by Alphadawg7
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12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 2nd Half Thread
Alphadawg7 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Wow what a catch!!! -
Houston game was Allen’s fault
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12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 1st Half Thread
Alphadawg7 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
LMAO Romo said there’s nothing to worry about kicking off with 13 seconds. He needs to watch more Bills games apparently -
Let’s let it go…and agree to disagree. I mean it’s been beaten to death and I don’t have the time ot energy to keep breaking down everything you are wrong about again.
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12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 1st Half Thread
Alphadawg7 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Josh had Ty wide open for a big first down and gain but elected to heave it a mile instead. Keon should have caught that but Allen still needs to look more than just deep on those extended plays for easier throws -
Much better than Cooper. Much better than Cooper. Little better than Cooper, but he is also used completely different than Cooper and not really comparable as he runs the ball a lot to as a RB Much better than Cooper Little better than Cooper and yet Cooper has always been considered in a tier higher than Sutton Also better than Cooper Cooper is worse than every WR on your list, some by a noticeable difference. Exactly what I said. Slightly worse than Cooper, but Tate was not in Coopers calls of WR either, he was at least a tier or 2 lower. What are you talking about, you literally 100% confirmed my entire point. You listed a bunch of WR's who were either his peer or worse and Cooper was literally worse than every single one of them, several by a lot. Come on man, not even the same era. Comparing receivers and their yardage production from 30 years ago to today is a worthless excecise. I mean you just proved everything I said correct, so thanks
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What Happened to Terrel Bernard?
Alphadawg7 replied to BillsFanForever19's topic in The Stadium Wall
True, and honestly, I don't think there is any scheme that benefits from being small up front. -
What part about my original post did you miss where I said if he wants legit WR1 money you don't pay him? The entire point I made was that he was not in that class and yet you seem to be arguing the same thing, which is even more puzzling to why you are arguing in the first place when you seem to agree. But please stop telling me things you "think" as if they are fact, when I actually did the work and checked the facts. Amari's boom or bust rate is higher than a lot other WR's, so its really annoying when people who did not do the work sit here and argue against the work. Doesn't matter if you believe it or not...but the facts are that Coopers degree of variance has been higher than his peers throughout his career. Its not an opinion, its math.
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What Happened to Terrel Bernard?
Alphadawg7 replied to BillsFanForever19's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yeah, that’s a good point about Gabe, I was counting him as netting us a 3rd pick in the 4th round before the season began. So yeah you are right, probably 5 now taking that into consideration. I still wouldn’t hate 2 picks within those 5 going towards the DL, but I bet and hope at least one does. -
What Happened to Terrel Bernard?
Alphadawg7 replied to BillsFanForever19's topic in The Stadium Wall
Depending on how the board falls, this would not surprise me, especially if one is an edge and the other interior. I would be all for it, but only if the board falls right, don't want to reach for a 2nd guy or anything like that. If we came away with 2 DL guys and a WR in our first 3 picks in the first 2 rounds I wouldn't be mad at it. Especially since offensively all we really need heading into the offseason is probably another WR. Shore up our trenches on the defense should be a top priority. I also wouldn't hate signing in FA or making a trade for a proven stud on the DL if one is available. I haven't checked to see what the FA market looks like next year, so no idea if there is a good option maybe there. But there is always a potential trade target if someone like say Garret comes available or something. -
Yeah, Lamar is having a season that would be a run away MVP seasons in many seasons past. There is no reason to diminish that. But Lamar also blew the Chiefs game missing a wide open game winning TD before the toe play. He also had some struggles in moments in some of the other losses too. Allen meanwhile has elevated what was supposed to be his worst set of weapons and an offensive step back all year to the #2 seed yet again and if not for a few lucky breaks (like Lamar blowing the Chiefs game) Bills would be the 1 seed and not the 2 seed. Meanwhile Lamar and the Ravens have dropped 5. Last year, they said it wasn’t about stats, so Josh couldn’t win it even though he was probably a slight edge over Lamar for more deserving. This year, it’s clear it’s Josh. And if stats weren’t the important factor last year, they shouldn’t be this year. But what concerns me is if Allen had a slow game again this week…voters have recency bias memories, so every week Allen doesn’t post gaudy stats and Lamar does hurts Allen’s chances even while still winning. And it’s pretty likely Josh sits or only plays a quarter/half the final week too. So let’s hope Allen smokes the Jets, if he does, the MVP will be his. If he doesn’t then I worry it’s going to be a close vote that could go either way.
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What Happened to Terrel Bernard?
Alphadawg7 replied to BillsFanForever19's topic in The Stadium Wall
This is a big part of the problem. When you are undersized as much as we are in places in our front 7 it’s going to cause problems and inconsistencies. You want to win in this league you better win in the trenches first. We are consistently winning in the trenches on offense but not on defense. Which is why I sincerely hope we invest 2 picks into beef on the defensive side in the draft, grabbing at least one between our 6 picks in the first 4 rounds, if not both if the right guys are there. I think WR and DL should be the priority heading into the draft. Obviously FA or Trades could change that, but as of now those should be our top 2 priorities IMO. -
No he is not spot on. I’ve done the variance on other WRs and Amari is worse, especially in the really bad games under 40, 30, and 20 yards. I’ve said this about Cooper his whole career. It’s why both the Raiders and Dallas traded him. Raiders didn’t want to pay him what he was going to get as a free agent and Dallas over paid him as an elite WR1 and then he was wildly inconsistent and didn’t live up to the contract. So no, MDH is right there is variance…but I never said there wasn’t variances. He keeps doing “spot checks” on partial data then claiming Cooper is on par with other top WR1’s and it’s just not correct. Again, Cooper was a good add, he brought a dimension we needed. But we are talking about signing him back as a FA here. And he is on the wrong side of 30, drops a lot of passes over his career, and is statistically more likely to put up less than 40 yards than he is more than 70 yards. And that data was generated during the prime of his career, he is again now on the wrong side of 30. In 4 of his last 6 games he has a TOTAL of 25 yards for an avg of 6.25 ypg playing with Josh Allen. So the point in my original point stated you sign him back if it’s a cost friendly deal. If he wants legit WR1 type money it’s a hard pass, you can replicate his weekly decoy status and occasional relevant game elsewhere for cheaper, like the draft where we have 3 picks in first 2 rounds plus 3 more in round 4.
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End thread here 👆 😂
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Your comprehension is at an all time low…it’s not that there is variance, it’s the extremes of his variance. Hence why I provided you with all the data you are ignoring and desperately trying to skew and cherry pick (which is your total schtick and par for the course with you) in a desperate attempt to pull the foot from your mouth.
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Because this convo has gone on and on, the actual point has been lost. The point is the significance in Amaris variance, not that there is variance in the first place. I mean let’s not be ridiculous and act like I was remotely suggesting there should be no variance, that’s absurd. Cooper has 45% of his career games under 50 yards. The number of games he has under 50, under 40, even under 20 yards is higher than what top end WR1s should have. So no, he’s not spot on. I never once stated there should be no variance, it’s football, of course their variance. I’ve talked about the DEGREE of variance with Cooper. And it’s factual, there is no denying the statistical facts of the boom or bust weekly variance of Coopers career. And back to my original point…you sign him if it’s a reasonable friendly deal. If he wants legit WR1 money…you don’t over pay a guy on the wrong side of 30 who drops too many passes and disappears for too many games.
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Haha thanks for being so predictable…you won me a bet with my wife that this nonsense is how you would reply. She thought no way you would still try after it was clearly laid out for you. This I agree on. Which is why I said he was a good midseason add…and also why I said you resign Cooper if it’s a cost friendly deal. If he wants legit WR1 money it’s a pass. You don’t pay a guy legit WR1 money who has too many drops and disappears as often as he does, and who is also on the wrong side of 30. You left out what he averages in the other games, how many games under 50 yards, how many yards under 40 yards, etc. Go compare how many games Chase has under 20 yards compared to how many Copper has. So for someone accusing of manipulating numbers, you just did half the work to manipulate a point.
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I did not in any way manipulate them. What did I state? I said he has some big games that make his season totals look better than his season really is where those handful of bigger games make up like 40% of his season totals. Which they do (often quite a bit more than 40% of his season totals) in pretty much every season of his career. You then respond saying he has a 200+ yard game and that manipulates the numbers. I mean that is exactly what I stated, VERBATIM my point. I said in his other games that are NOT his bigger games he averaged just 50 yards per game. Which again is factual. I did NOT say all 10 of his games were “bad”. I said that this was his average over those NON BIG GAMES in 2023 and every one of his seasons. I then additionally highlighted how many of those were “bad” by stating he had X number of games under X number of yards in each season. NONE of his games were ignored or not counted. A 89 yard game in a loss with no TDs on a 55% catch rate is NOT a big game. It’s a aight game at best. The separation was big games vs everything else. IMO, your mistake is associating every non big game as me claiming it was a “bad” game…but that was your assumption, no where did I state that. And in his best season (2023) he still averaged just 51 ypg in his non 5 big games and had 6 of those ten be under 40 yards. If 6 were under 40, then of course 4 of them had to be high enough to get his 10 game average back to 51. And if you took the time to properly understand my post and then checked each year after, you would see every other year of his 10 year career is worse than 2023. Every single game he has played was 100% accounted for in the 10 seasons I laid out. And to be clear, I’m not anti Cooper, I broke it down to counter the nonsense someone else posted. Unfortunately you just repeated the same mistake he made. The difference though is I am sure your post was more about legitimately misunderstanding my post.
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lol…again, I said career, and I recall Amari playing ten years not one. Last year was his most outlier year, yet he still averaged 50 yards a game outside his 5 big games and had 6 games under 40 yards…SIX in his BEST year. I verbatim stated he has some big games that make up a large portion of his yearly totals while he has the majority of his game be meh to games he was missing in action. That was literally the entire point you seem to have completely missed. I don’t know what is worse…the fact you can’t distinguish between the word “career” vs a single year or the fact you just verbatim echoed my exact point in your attempt to refute information you didn’t read. 45% of Coppers career games he had UNDER 50 yards. But keep trying to refute things you didn’t read or analyze yourself.
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I hope you are right, because Josh deserves it...he also had a pretty strong case last year for it too. If I am not mistaken, he set the NFL record for lowest completion % in a game (based on what ever min attempts the qualifiers was for). And it was his worst game maybe of his career.
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Josh deserves the MVP. BUT...The offense struggling at home against a 3 win Pats team while Lamar sailed past Houston again has put the MVP in real question again for Josh after ending the Lions game as the overwhelming heavy favorite. Josh was awful against both Balt and Houston (historically awful against Houston)...Balt just steam rolled Houston. So Lamar now has steam rolling the Bills and steam rolling the other team Josh was terrible against on his MVP resume to go along with admittedly gaudy stats. If Josh doesn't steam roll the Jets this week, I think he may lose a close vote to Lamar. I say that because odds are we will see Josh either sit out the final week all together or maybe just play a quarter or a half as we will have nothing to play for. So lets hope for a big week from Josh and the offense because he deserves the MVP
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LMAO...I don't know if there is anyone who talks more out of their a** than you. It’s wild to me that you can have so much confidence in your BS to where you won't even know the facts but yet still try and argue things you don’t know with people who do know. But since you asked so nicely for me to again dunk on another one of your bad takes and ridiculous false accusations, I am happy to oblige. First: What I said: "Not only does he have more drops than people realize, but his career pattern is a few big games that make up like 40% of his season totals, then the rest are meh to invisible games." - Note: You of course left the part out I said about the drops...because...well...even you can't spin that. And the point (which you also didn’t quote) was that Amari was a good midseason acquisition, but resigning him should only be done on a cost friendly deal, if he wants lead WR1 type money then no, too many drops and inconsistency for a guy like that who is also on the wrong side of 30. 2023 - 15 games: 5 big games. They made up 58% of his season totals. In the other 10 games he averaged 51 yards per game, including SIX under 40 yards. 2022 - 17 games: 5 good to big games. They made up 48% of his season totals. In the other 12 games he averaged 50 yards per game, including EIGHT games under 60 yards, 6 of which were under 40 yards. 2021 - 15 games: 2 big games. They made up 30% of his season totals. In the other 13 games he averaged 46 ypg, including NINE under 60 yards, 5 of which were under 40 yards. 2020 - 16 games: 4 good to big games. They made up 42% of his season totals. In the other 12 games he averaged 53 ypg, including SIX under 60 yards. 2019 - 16 games: 4 good to big games. They made up 49% of his season totals. In the other 12 games he averaged 50 ypg, including FIVE games under 50 yards. 2018 - 15 games: 4 big games. They made up 64% of his season totals. In the other 11 games he averaged 33 ypg, including EIGHT under 40 yards 2017 - 14 games: 2 big games. They made up 48% of his season totals. In the other 12 games he averaged 30 ypg, including NINE under 50 yards, 8 of which were under 40 yards. 2016 - 16 games: 4 big games. They made up 50% of his season totals. In the other 12 games he averaged 48 yards per game, including NINE under 60 yards, 7 of which were under 50 yards. 2015 - 15 games: 5 good to big games. They made up 57% of his season totals. In the other 10 games he averaged 10 games he averaged 46 ypg, including EIGHT under 50 yards. Cooper has 153 career games: He has under 50 yards 69 times (45% of his career games) - 54 of those games were under 40 yards (35% of his career games) - 42 of those games were under 30 yards. (28% of his career games) Hopefully you weren't too full from the holidays after having to eat another plate of humble pie here because I would hate for you to get a tummy ache sport Happy new year
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I said his career…guess I didn’t realize Amari Cooper only played one season in 2023 lmao. But hey, expecting you to read well, actually address the comments written, etc at this stage would be foolish for anyone to expect.
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He was a good midseason addition...but this is also par for the course for Amari's career and I would not bring him back unless its on a really cost friendly deal. If he wants WR1 money, hard pass. Not only does he have more drops than people realize, but his career pattern is a few big games that make up like 40% of his season totals, then the rest are meh to invisible games. Does he make our team better, yes...but how much better is questionable. In 4 of his last 6 games he has a total...a TOTAl...of 25 yards for a whopping 6.25 yards per GAME. That includes games of 0 yards, 3 yards, 10 yards, and 12 yards. Since joining Buffalo has is avg 34 yards per game catching 62% of his targets. If you can retain him cheap, then consider it...but if he wants legit WR1 money, pass.