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Everything posted by Alphadawg7
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Oh I did, and let me be clear from my side, I’m not absolving Josh here, he made those mistakes and has owned them. I’m with you on that for sure. Im saying I came away from that game with concerns still on Dorsey on the decisions he also made in that game. It’s not necessarily one or the other, I think they both need to be better. All good, I’ve enjoyed your perspective and agree with most of what you have said too
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Surprised didn’t see anyone post this. Watched this live and it’s a great watch, highly encourage watching the whole thing. It’s was done live today, so it covers the Jets game a lot, Josh, moving forward etc. Take away is that Diggs is in a great place and him and Von make for both an interesting and fun conversation. I don’t see signs of trouble here and he seems in great spirits and very open and candid. Any concerns people had after Monday don’t seem to be there and seems to have Josh’s back. Worth the watch, it’s a fun interview! I’d even say really a must watch, this lets you in with Diggs and puts to bed so much of the nonsense and noise.
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Bills are adjusting to a lot and are going to get better
Alphadawg7 replied to transplantbillsfan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Fair points and good post. I will say while I think its fair to assume some of that takes place, there is an order progression generally on play designs. And a lot of plays are designed to get certain players open and often those players have route options based on the D and alignments they see. -
The 12 personnel thing is a bit misleading though, they are just counting the times that both Knox and Kincaid were on the field at the same time where Kincaid was more lined up as a WR and wasn't as much in the sense of a traditional 12 personnel formation. Like Beane said, more like a 11.5 formation. Which is great, but still only 8 targets combined. And all good man, good counter points, thoughts and stuff, I don't find you rude at all. For me, it just felt like Josh would drop back and look downfield far too often and our game plan didn't prioritize attacking those shorter areas of the field to open up the downfield more. For me, if Josh has time to hold the ball and look down field then it doesn't feel like the primary or hot read was the short underneath that was open or he would have looked there first and fired. So either Dorsey is calling it and Josh ignores it often, or these shorter routes are too often later in the read progressions. Just doesn't feel like the quick strike and short throws have been a consistent part of this offense since Cole was here under Daboll. Not saying we never do it, but it doesn't feel like its often enough to me. I could be wrong and more of it is to come, but it just felt like the same Dorsey from last year. Calling long routes on down and short, running Cook and Allen on draws, not involving our TE's more. Kincaid and Knox were on the field together for 64% of the snaps, but each only had 8 total targets. If you are going to line up a TE at WR that often with another TE on the field, then it should be to exploit those mismatches and they should be the priority or hot read to the point to get more than 8 combined targets. Just my 2 cents...and hey its just one game where Allen played poorly, so hard to make any concrete conclusions anyway until we see more. But I went into that game with keen eyes on both our coordinators and how the offense and defense might look different from last year. And came away feeling good about McD and still concerned about whether Dorsey is the right fit for this gig. But its one game, not gonna panic either, just he didn't do anything to alleviate my concerns and of course Josh Allen did him no favors either.
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This is the kind of over the top garbage that irks me. Most TD's in NFL history in first 5 years...several playoff passing records...17-3 TD:INT ration in the playoffs...passing stats in the playoffs that dwarf the overrated Burrow...leads the Bills to within EIGHT points of being undefeated last year despite terrible rash of injuries, including his own throwing elbow that most QB's would have missed 4-6 weeks for. He goes out and lays an egg. I have seen elite QB's, the greatest of all time, throw more INT's in a game than him. But now this one game and everyone is taking this steep negative view on him. Yes, he has the most turnovers since week 1 2022...you know who 2nd, 3rd and 4th are? Mahomes, Dak, and Stafford which includes the last 2 QB's to win a SB. And the turnover gets skewed with Allen because of the fumbles, but he isn't an interception machine like people like to use the total turnovers to suggest when comparing to other QB's. And while fumbles are still turnovers, Josh makes plays with his legs that no other QB can make and changes games and gets wins. When you are a QB who takes chances, some of them are not going to work out. And while he needs to reduce the turnovers, the sheer amount of points and offense he creates by playing with the crazy style he does brings a LOT more good to this team than bad. For all the "Josh Allen Issues" last year, the Bills were EIGHT points away from being undefeated. Josh is still the man...I am still VERY concerned about Dorsey being the right OC, but I haven't lost faith of confidence in Josh. I do think he really needs a big game for his confidence and psyche right now because we have a brutal stretch after thanksgiving where this offense needs to have its groove and swagger back by then.
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These things below are not wrong per se, but they also do still relate to Dorsey too, not just Allen. Stop having Allen work mostly out of the Gun, especially when over center was so effective. Stop with so many 5 and 7 step drop backs and looking downfield first that require the OL to hold longer. Quick drops and fire short need to be MUCH more involved in our pass attack. We have a mamoth of a QB, he doesn't need to be in the gun so much or taking long 7 step drop backs to see the field and get the ball out, he isn't Drew Brees where he needs more space to see over lineman. This ties into the above. Stop calling QB runs, he isn't a fullback. Stop always pushing hard downfield and build a short area attack like KC where Mahomes gets like 30% of his passing yards on throws near or behind the LOS. KC doesn't run the ball a ton either, but they supplement it with their short pass attack that is really hard to defend. While this isn't wrong, this statement doesn't address the "why" these things happen. Allen isn't calling the plays, Dorsey is. Dorsey called a play with 5 targets for Allen on 3rd and short where the 4 WR's ran 15 yard routes and the RB was the only short option on the play call. It doesn't matter if there are 5 targets and 2 of them are short, if they are late in the progressions of reads on the play, then Allen may not reach them before he has decided to throw or run if doesn't trust the OL to hold. Again, you are fully blaming Allen for Kincaids lack of targets, but you can't say how many plays were even called to get him the ball. More often than not, he looked like a safety net route based on the deep drop back and downfield looks first while Kincaid often ran in the shallower areas on many of those plays. Allen 100% deserves the criticism he earned from this game, it was a poor game for him. But that doesn't mean there are not other things that contribute to these issues, and Dorsey IMHO has not shown at all to be a good OC last year, and week 1, his offense looked the same as it did last year in how he called the game and used his personnel. Good OC's tailor to their QB's strengths and weaknesses...Daboll has shown to be substantially better at that so far than Dorsey has with Allen.
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I obviously am not in the headset or have the playbook, but from a spectators point of view, Josh doesn't seem to be dropping back very often where the hot read is the short routes because its not very often where he takes a quick drop and fires. We too often take deep 5 to 7 step drops where his eyes are first downfield. That is where I think the issue is...whether its Josh or Dorsey, they more often need to scheme plays like the first play of the game. Drop back and fire on a quick slant to Diggs for an easy completion on an elite corner even. But these 5 and 7 step drop backs, so often in the Gun, etc where Josh is giving deeper routes time to develop is prohibiting Josh from taking the shorter field stuff too often. If Josh sees an opening downfield he is proving he will take it, even if there is a safer throw he has not yet gotten to in his progressions. See that is the key factor here...where are these short routes in his progressions really? If they were early or priorty he wouldn't be taking 7 step drop backs, bouncing on his feet looking downfield first so often. So I would like to see a shift in style to where we prioritize the short attack as a significant part of our attack the way KC does to scheme things easy for Mahomes. Mahomes has a higher level efficiency because KC attempts a substantial amount more safe and controlled passes near or behind the LOS and leads the NFL in yards from this by a 2 to 1 margin to the 2nd QB. Its also why KC is sooooo good near the goaline, redzone, and 3rd downs. Yet we on 3rd and short Monday we had 5 targets, where the 4 WRs ran 15 yard routes with only the RB running in the short area for the first down range. We didn't convert. Im not removing all responsibility from Allen, but the OC needs to help him by calling plays where they are designed to be quick drops and fire type plays. We don't do enough of it, and Allen is too competitive and confident in his arm to not take those downfield chances if he even sees a sliver of a window or try and make a play with is legs if he doesn't trust the pocket anymore. He makes many of those plays, but they are higher risk plays with lower probability, so when he is off like he was Monday, its bad.
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Im saying those underneath short throws need to be the primary hot reads more often, not options found in 3rd and 4th progressions
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Britts family has money too, she doesn't even need money from Josh to fund her lifestyle. Her big Italy trip for weeks on weeks was with her dad and family. She also uses her social reach to make money now plugging products and stuff. So yeah, have no idea what he is referring to as she is all over social media and had money before Josh.
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Ive said this now in several threads...until Dorsey and this offense shift away from the downfield push, this is going to be an up and down issue. You don't need the playbook to see where the focus and reads are, just watch Allen drop back. Far too often we are doing deep drop backs with eyes downfield meaning the early and hot route reads are there and the short stuff that keeps coming open are LATER in the order of progressions on his reads. When you got a confident big armed QB who has had a ton of success firing big shots all over the place, how often do you really think he is going to reach his 4th or 5th read in his progressions? Now factor in that same QB is a very dangerous running the ball, and now you wonder how often he even reaches his 3rd progression before starting to run around and move. If all these early reads are downfield, which take time to develop and you a questionable OL, its no wonder your QB is going to start getting happy feet looking for those plays to come open and use his legs to extend the plays to give those guys chances to come open. It makes the easier short throw feel more like a bail out or last resort than a priority. Until we see a lot more quick drop and fire out of this offense, this is going to always persist. Defenses are keying on taking the deep shots away because we are not a big threat to run the ball and not a big threat to attack underneath. It was MUCH different when we had Daboll and Cole because Daboll frequently would use Cole as a primary read, especially on down and short and 3rd downs. Under Dorsey last year, they didn't have that slot guy to do that and we got away from it. This year in week 1, we have the weapons yet we still did not do much of any kind of quick strike game. Allen made some poor choices, but our OC is not helping him out. Until Dorsey stops treating Allen like some sort of heavy artillery weapon, consistency will be a problem. Look at KC, something like 30% of Mahomes production comes from throws near or behind the LOS. Its a colossal reason he is so efficient. Fun fact: While Allen has the most turnvoves since week 1 of 2022...Mahomes is 2nd. Why does that not get talked about? Because his efficiency is still so high with all the quick strike and short area throws they wear down defenses with and win games.
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The Bills Should Inquire About Hunter Renfrow’s Availability.
Alphadawg7 replied to STL-Bills's topic in The Stadium Wall
The issue is not we need another WR...the issue is the fundamental philosophy of Dorsey's offense is to push the ball deep downfield. You can see it on every one of Josh's drop backs...they are mostly deep drops where the early reads are all downfield which means the short stuff like Hunter would run are later in his progression of reads and he more often than not is going to have thrown the ball or run before he gets to those later reads. We need a lot more short drops and quick throws. This team has been obsessed with Allens big arm and cannon being able to do things other QB's could never do. But, they need to start treating Allen like a QB more than just some heavy artillery weapon. We have plenty of guys who can attack the short read zones like Cole did, and that was difference. Daboll infused Cole into the game plan and designed quick reads to him. Dorsey simply sucks at doing this last year and so far this first week. I love seeing Allen get chunk plays, but I am sick of seeing him always taking deep drops with the deeper routes always the early reads. I want to see a lot more quick strike attacking, and once they do, it will significantly open up the deep ball more and give Allen higher percentage opportunities downfield. -
I get it, giving up an 83 yard run is not something they want to do every game. My only point is I am not going to come away concerned about a run D that mostly shut the Jets combo of Hall and Dalvin (easily one of the best 1-2 combos in the league) outside of one blown mistake on an assignment. A blown assignment is fixable, I don't look at it much differently than a bad ill-timed penalty like a PI on a bomb that gave the offense a huge gain and FG. I would be more concerned if the Jets manhandled our front line and ran on us all night is really the only point from my end. I mean our run D was actually quite good outside of a blown assignment mistake. Now if those blown assignments go on to be say common or frequent each game, then we are back to having an issue. But Monday, it was really just one play that made the rush defense stats look bad, outside of that the average per rush was like 2 yards per carry with two very good RB's coming at the Bills D.
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I think Dorsey is also a big part of this problem. Watch Josh drop back...its clear as day the short and underneath routes are not early in the progression of reads. We have a monster arm QB who can get the ball anywhere, and that is compounding the issue. Josh drops back and looking downfield first, and with his arm he is going to see tight windows he knows he can make and not be afraid to fire it like other QB's might be and never reach his open guys later in his progression that are short easy completions. This is what fundamentally needs to change. Dorsey needs to draw up plays more often like the first play of the game on the quick strike easy completion slant to Diggs right on Sauce. That was where the read was. But most of the game, Josh is doing these deep drop backs, patting the ball and looking downfield. And when our average or worse OL doesn't hold up real long, Josh gets happy feet and needs to get out of there and then it becomes more playground ball and Josh knows he can fire the ball still downfield when guys break-off routes. Until we start making the short reads the hot route or early in his progressions, Josh is never going to consistently get to those easy throws vs taking higher risk throws downfield. We need to use our guys like Diggs, Knox, Kincaid, Cook, Harty, etc to attack these short area zones and move the chains and look for RAC opportunities. There is a reason Mahomes is so efficient, its because he gets something like 30% of his production off throws near or behind the LOS. KC isn't a big rushing team either, but they use the short pass attack as essentially part of their run game. This obsession of large chunk plays needs to be reduced because they are lower percentage and easier to defend as they take time to develop downfield allowing guys to get in position and also more time for the defensive front to get through the OL.
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Bills are adjusting to a lot and are going to get better
Alphadawg7 replied to transplantbillsfan's topic in The Stadium Wall
While there are some fair points in here, its also a bit over the top and exaggerative. Our WR group stinks why? Because Allen made bad choices and didn't throw to a number of open targets on each the plays he threw an INT on? What is your evidence the WR group stinks, because the film showed our guys getting open. Kincaid and Knox don't scare defenses? You know this how? Because of one game? You don't think teams are coming into Bills games seeing a good TE in Knox who has 15 TD's the last 2 years despite his low use rate and a first round rookie TE that has shined all preseason and camp that the Bills have been saying will be a big part of the offense? I assure you, defenses are preparing to see looks of 12 personnel and Kincaid in the slot because it creates mismatches. NOW...its up to the Bills and Allen to go out and use these weapons and formations, but to say that everyone stinks is just a ridiculously over the top statement that does not reflect the game at all. However, I will say the complaints you have about the system and the way the game was called are more warranted. Dorsey's offense did not look to me to be much different from the last years offense that made everything harder. Even though guys were getting open short and underneath, on all these drop backs you can see right away they are late in the reads, not one of the early reads, making them harder for Josh to get to in his progressions. All our drop backs are deep and you can see the focus is on giving the downfield stuff to develop rather than drop back and look for a quick strike ball. To me, that is the BIGGEST issue with Dorsey and this offense. So people get frustrated when on the replay of an incomplete pass, turnover, or sack they see guys in the shorter zones running open and blame Allen. But if we have 5 recieving targets, and his first 4 reads are all downfield, he won't always get to his 5th read before he fires a ball in tight coverage, gets pushed out of the pocket or tries to run. There needs to be a major shift in our passing attack philosophy because right now, the priority is too push push push downfield and all teams need to do is take that away because we don't have a great OL and the time it takes for those guys to get downfield, the DL can get through and disrupt the passing lanes and pocket. We need to see a LOT more of what we saw on the first play of the game, quick drop slant to Diggs for an easy completion on Sauce to open the game. As much as I love seeing Allens cannon pick up chunk yards, we need to simplify the game more and give Allen easier and quicker targets. There is a reason Mahomes is so efficient, something like 30% of his yards come from throws around or behind the LOS. If we don't attack short, they will cheat deep and that always disrupts our offense. Its bad enough we arent a big rushing team, but neither is KC, they extend the run game into the pass game with all these short area passes they get chunk yards on. We need to incorporate a LOT more of that. -
Who is discounting it...but facts are facts. If not for one blown assignment, Hall didn't do a whole lot in that game and neither did any of the Jets RB's. Point is, the rush D was pretty good had it not given up a big run on a blown assignment making me not very worried about our defense. If our defense holds a team to under 2 yards per carry for every running play during a game at the expense of giving up 3 points off one big run, I will take that 100% of the time.
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There is nothing accurate about comparing Allen to Newton, honestly its just lazy. They are in different leagues when it comes to passing.
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No disrespect intended here, but I am confused, how is it deceiving? No Super Bowl team has had a 1000 yard rusher, meaning some lead bell cow back, since 2016. I don't see what is deceiving about that when the topic of discussion is spending assets and cap space to get what is considered an elite bell cow RB. And honestly, 1000 yards is not even an accomplishment, which is just 59 yards per game today or 62.5 yards per game when it was 16 games...yet no SB winner has had one in a NFL record 7 consecutive years now. Doesn't mean I wouldn't be excited if we got JT, but I also don't think we need him nor do I want to pay him and give up assets. I would personally much rather invest the draft capital and cap space into the offensive line which would do more for this team than JT would IMHO. On 2 plays and did nothing the rest of the game though. And one of those plays was a blown assignment.
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Personally, the talent is on this roster offensively and collectively at the skill positions they are in the top 10. OL is not, but it does seem to be trending better than last year. I agree, I think Allen felt the pressure to elevate his team and was pressing too much, especially after the mistakes started piling up. But, adding Taylor changes very little IMO because we just don't run even with the talent we have. We have our best RB room since Allen go here and yet we still didn't run the ball much with them combining for something like 16 carries all game in a close game where Allen was struggling. Our run design is terrible and predominantly run from the stand point of being tricky more than committing to run the ball. We still run out of non-traditional formations and Dorsey still calls draws for Allen and Cook even though we have guys like Harris and Murray better suited for those plays. I just don't see JT bringing much more to the team as long as Dorsey is OC. He can't help when he isn't getting the ball.
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Pop Quiz: When was the last time a SB winner had a 1000 yard rusher? Answer: 2016. Winning a Super Bowl and having a dominant run game do not go hand in hand anymore. We don't need Taylor, we need to be smarter in how we call games (Dorsey), use our personnel (Dorsey again), and execute and make decisions on the field (Allen). None of that has anything to do with needing Jonathon Taylor.
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If anyone was to make a list of the best CB's in NFL history, Deion Sanders would get plenty of votes. He was allergic to tackling, as were a lot of the best CB's since. Tre, in coverage, played pretty good last night. I am not too concerned about the tackle opportunities on a run or two where the real breakdown happened before the RB got to Tre's level in the first place. Honestly, I am not even worried about the run defense...outside those 2 Hall runs, Jets averaged like 2 yards a carry on all other attempts.
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We are on same page on the coverage for sure...and yeah definitely doesn't matter by any means here, just some convo. Not clear what he is bending his thumb on, but it comes after Wilson deflects the ball as Tre's hand is about a foot away from the ball in front of his face mask not yet extended when Wilson has his whole hand on the ball to tip it away from Tre and his tight coverage. If you pause it at 22 seconds you can see Wilsons entire hand on the ball while Tre's elbow is still bent and not yet extended. All good either way, the point was the same for both of us...excellent coverage by Tre countered by an incredible play by Wilson. Can't fault Tre at all for this, especially since Wilson's first move was to prevent Tre from getting his hands on it and then just got a lucky break that it deflected to a spot he could still make the catch.
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I thought so too, but then they showed the other angle and Tre never touches the ball, Wilson literally hits it himself and tips it to himself. I mean it was an incredible play by Wilson on a corner who had him blanketed with great coverage. Like I said before, I don't see how Tre can play that any better without committing PI, can't fault him for that. Wilson just made one of those unbelievable plays that did just enough to counter the great coverage. Here is the replay...when you get to 22 seconds, you see the angle that clearly shows Tre never touches the ball and that Wilson tips the ball himself to keep it away from Tre as it was in the wrong spot, but then the ball ends up where Wilson keeps his concentration and is able to still catch it too. Just an incredible all around play from the young WR to bail out his QB who didn't put the ball in a great place on that throw. https://www.espn.com.sg/video/clip?id=38382744
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Replay shows that Wilson tipped the ball to himself, Tre did not actually deflect that ball. So let's be clear, Tre did not actually knock that ball away and then suddenly land with Wilson. BUT, that is not to disparage Tre, I don't know how he can defend that play any better without committing PI, it was excellent coverage. That is to highlight just how sensational of a play that really was from Wilson. I thought Tre actually played a pretty good game. Corners are not known for tackling, and the 2 long runs were on a lot more players other than Tre. But in pass defense, his primary responsibility, he looked a lot more like his old self than he did last year.