Alphadawg7

As the draft approaches, my love affair for Roschon has only increased. I can't shake what an ideal fit he would be in Buffalo and his stock is only continuing to rise to the point now that I think he very well could go day 2 in the 2nd round. It wouldn't surprise me if he was the 3rd or 4th RB off the board. And that being said, if he was there in the 2nd at 59, I honestly would not be upset if we took him that early because I think he is going to be that good and an excellent pairing with Cook as a tandem for the next few years. I had hoped to get him in the 3rd, but I think there is a solid chance he is gone before that pick.

I don’t disagree, my point was only that there is a lot of chatter about Texans being enamored with him. That includes my friend in Texas who’s got a close connection to the Texans and said he’s heard the same down there. He’s actually pissed about the idea of them taking a RB too ha. He is hoping it’s just a smoke screen to hide who they really want or to try and entice someone to move up. But as far as he has heard, the interest is allegedly legiti.

Oh man, hope things are all good bud. Wishing you a speedy recovery brother!

Agreed on the above To put your post into simpler terms...it's not very realistic for the Bills this year.

I think this has more chance to be a reality on draft day than some think. Lot of smoke that the Texans are enamored with Bijan and with that staffs background, it would make sense.

Yeah, and they didn't really even really utilize them a lot together, and honestly those teams probably should have too. Sherfield is better than people think too, and I think he is gonna run more as the 3rd WR if we didn't draft or trade for another WR. Personally, I think we are going to still draft one though. So yeah, I agree, just don't see how Cole would ever make it back on this roster unless there was some sort of injury situation during the season when there are few options out there and he has familiarity with the offense and QB.

The Ravens didn't have a 2 TE pass attack though, that offense was built on dual RB combo of Jamaal Lewis and Priest Holmes that also used Shannon Sharpe predominantly when throwing to a TE. That team was built on their defense that broke the 85 Bears defensive scoring record and grinding down teams by running the ball. The Patriots did briefly utilize a heavy dose of 2 TE sets in the passing game, but they lost the only SB they made with that offense 21-17 to the Giants. Honestly it hasn't happened in the modern era the way people are suggesting we would run it if we drafted a TE round 1. And totally agree...just because it hasn't been done doesn't mean it can't be done. But look at the flip side of that. We have an offense that is 2nd only to KC in total points scored over the past 3 seasons, a difference of only 10 points by the way. Allen who has excelled in a spread em out downfield attack, who specifically wanted Dorsey because he had been here and could keep running a similar offense. Dorsey is just a 2nd year OC who already has a lot of areas to work on from his first year debut. So for me, I just think this notion we will go away from 3+ WR sets in heavy favor of a 12 personnel offense is a bit unrealistic. I mean that is a lot to ask of a 2nd year OC to completely redesign his offense into one he has never run as an assistant or coach on any level. And it would be different style than what our elite QB wanted and is comfortable in. If we do take a TE early, which is possible with the varying ways the draft could fall, then I think what is more likely to happen is we will see some 12 personnel inserted in situational play calling but won't see some fundamental switch to featuring 2 TE's like some keep suggesting.

Not trying to throw shade at anyone here, but honestly there is nothing at all leading to this conclusion other than assumptions and speculation by posters if we were to draft a tight end in round 1. But just being honest, there is no evidence that we are going to run less 3 WR sets next year. In fact you could argue it’s just the opposite. Bills not only signed multiple new WRs already, they have explored interest in OBJ and Hopkins and shown a heavy interest in WRs early in this draft. All of which points to interest in continuing to run a lot of 3+ WR sets. It’s possible they take a TE in round 1 or 2, it’s a weird draft and if a TE is BPA at those spots Beane has shown to stay true to his board. And while that could lead to using some 2 TE sets in certain situations, it wouldn’t automatically indicate a fundamental shift in Dorsey’s offense and a big reduction to 3+ WR sets.

Yes, you assumed correctly, but didn’t do that to “eliminate” Redskins as they didn’t run the same type of offense that people are assuming we would convert to if we took a TE in the first.

He is not necessarily wrong, but he isn't for sure right either. Based on only last year, he could certainly say that. But what does he have left a year later and over a full season is a real question? And where will Shakir be at in his growth come week 1 is also an unknown. Until Shakir proves it on the field, hard to say Cole is wrong. However, I prefer sticking with the youth and seeing what Shakir can do, or even a rookie if we draft someone to compete for the starting slot WR spot with Shakir. But Cole could still start on many teams IMO this season as a quality slot WR.

I think some of you grossly underestimate how big of a change that would be. NFL Offensive Coordinators are not known for just scrapping their entire offensive style and moving to a totally different offense design in an off season. Usually the team just fires the OC and then goes and hires the OC that runs the system they want to change to who has proven success running that style of offense. If we had a good 2nd TE, would we incorporate some more 2 TE sets...sure...but to expect its going to be a main focal point is a bit unrealistic. And I will point this out again to everyone so keen on running a heavy dose of 12 personnel...no team has ever won the SB building its offense off 12 personnel and 2 TE sets.

While I don't think he will go in the first round, I do think Downs could end up being the best WR to come out of this draft when we look back in 3-5 years. 27 feels early for him, but I also do not think he reaches us in the 2nd either. For the record, I am think Shakir has good potential and was high on him last draft. However, like I have said in other threads, despite being optimistic about Shakir, it would be hard to not get excited about someone as electric as Downs.

Facts are facts, Jets (on paper at least) just got a lot better and have to consider them a contender if Rodgers maintains a high level of play. Packers did a good job holding out and getting a lot for Rodgers. At least the Jets had to surrender some decent draft capital for a guy who is no lock to play again next year and costs an obscene amount of money annually. Expected, don't love it, but at least it is more of a short term problem given Rodgers age and flirtations with retirement every year now. I still think the Bills can and will win the division, but the AFCE may now be the best division in football. So winning the division is going to be no easy task and neither will the number 1 seed in the AFC.

Im on the same page, in no way do I want them to reach. Which is why I won't be upset regardless of how it plays out, I trust Beane won't reach and will take who they feel is the BPA when they pick at 27 or if they trade up or down from 27.

Personally, I think its unlikely. I do think 2 RB's are going to go in first with Bijan and Gibbs, but for this to be true only 1 WR would have to go round 1. And I have a hard time seeing less than 2 WR's go round given the number of teams that need a WR this year, especially in the back half of the draft. At the same time, it wouldn't be totally shocking either if only 1 WR went given the wide varying degree of how people feel about the WR's. Kind of reminds me of the year DK Metcalf came out where there were a lot of guys that could be first rounders, then many fell to the 2nd round.

I don't personally think he will be drafted in the first round, but I do think he has some serious upside and has the potential to be the best WR to come out of this draft when we look back in 3-5 years. Shakir is someone I like a lot and believe has a lot of potential still. But if we ended up with Downs in the 2nd, it would be hard to not get very excited.

For the record, I am the last person you should say that to. Go pull up any thread on any player drafted on draft night and you will not find a single post made by me flipping out telling people the pick was terrible. If we draft someone I didn't expect (like Bernard last year, Boogie, etc) the first thing I do is try and learn more about the player and look for the optimism that our Front Office might have saw to make the pick. Not the other way around, so you are way off base here. Worse yet, I have said I expect us to draft a TE, and we should. I even said I would be fine if the board fell where the BPA was a TE at 27 and Beane stuck true to his board. I even said that I am always for taking the talent, and if a TE was the clear BPA I would be fine with it. Honestly, this is where I exit the convo. You are just way too defensive to the point you are towing the line of dragging this into the mud for no reason and now just making baseless rants when I all I was doing was politely discussing your mock with you. If you can't handle open polite open discussion about your mock, maybe don't subject yourself to other opinions by posting a mock draft thread. All good...GoBills

No disrespect, but you just told @newcam2012he is making a lot of assumptions, but then followed that up with a bunch of assumptions like "Q. Johnson is just a Gabe Davis clone" and "the first LB doesn't come off the board until pick 48". The Gabe Davis comparison just feels like a lazy assumption given they are not really that similar in how they play nor are they anywhere near the same kind of prospect coming out of college. More importantly, you realize that this is most likely the last year we have Davis who there is very little chance they pay what he can get in Free Agency next season to keep him right? Having an opportunity to draft a WR at 27 that has WR1 potential has a lot of value, especially considering the alternative is a 2nd string TE who might only get 20-30 targets at most behind Knox. And no disrespect, but you can't defend not taking a LB at 27 by saying "I gave you one at 59". When deciding who to pick at 27 it is not known who will be there at pick 59, so that is a completely irrelevant statement to what decision should be made while actually deciding who the pick should be at 27. You seem a bit defensive about your mock, and you shouldn't be, especially given all mocks are wrong. But I think the point you are missing from those who have a differing opinion, is that they doubt we are going to prioritize a second TE over some of the other guys you still had on the board in your mock. Doesn't matter at all who you mocked to us in the 2nd, its about what choice would be best while sitting on the clock at 27. Personally, I think they would take the WR in Johnston in your mock, but I could also see them taking someone else at OL, LB, or DL there too over a TE. Not saying a TE is impossible at 27, because if he is the clear cut BPA then I expect Beane would stick to his board and add the talent if he say couldn't trade back. But based on your mock, Kincaid is not the BPA and nor would I expect Kincaid to be the pick if the board fell this way.

Did you just say your mock draft is "very" realistic while saying more than 2/3rds is going to be wrong? Isn't that kind of a contradiction? No need to get so defensive about something you expect to be mostly wrong about because someone thinks its going to fall different. Like I said, kudos for the work, I just don't think some of the places you have guys going is realistic. Just my opinion, nothing more nothing less. We all just have opinions, like your mock is your opinion, others having a different mock is just an opinion. And the one universal truth is all these mocks will be wrong anyway. But to your point of giving us a top 3 LB in the 2nd not making any sense...the point was rather than using a first round pick on a BACKUP player at a position we DONT feature (TE), I would rather have the top LB (as to a top 3 one in the 2nd) in the first and take someone else at WR, OL, or even TE in the 2nd. I am not even advocating for a LB in the first, I both want and think it is going to be a WR personally. I am just saying taking a TE who is going to get maybe 20-30 targets as the 7th or 8th priority in our offense this year with our first round pick is less appealing than drafting someone who will likely have a bigger role in our team this year.

Totally agree with all this. Honestly this is exactly my thoughts on the matter. I just find it unrealistic that Dorsey is going to go from under using our very good TE to effectively using two. Im never against adding talent, not like I will be upset if we landed a premiere talent at TE to pair with Knox. But I don’t have any confidence that we will see a lot of targets for that second TE in Dorseys offense. So while I know we need a 2nd TE, I really hope it’s not in the first round because I would much rather see us take a player that has a higher chance to see the field more and make a bigger impact this year as we strive for a SB.

With Diggs age and Davis in his final year, I think they would for sure take the WR over a TE. Reality is Davis is likely gone after this season, there is no way they are going to pay him what he will fetch on the open market. Getting a potential replacement for him certainly seems like a high priority for this front office given the amount of interest they have demonstrated between exploring acquisitions and draft visits. Meanwhile, TE's most often grossly underperform to draft hype, especially their early years. And any TE we bring in will be second string to Knox who we just extended and is young himself. So if one of the top WR's is still on the board at 27, I don't think there is much chance they take a TE over that WR. Not saying we would never go TE, I mean if the board falls in a way where TE is the clear cut BPA at 27, I don't expect Beane to reach elsewhere and can see him taking the talent. But I do think he would first try and trade down if that were the case.

Never said they wont take a TE, in fact I fully expect them to take a TE. Taking a TE at 27 though is completely different thing. Im not even saying we definitely wont go TE at 27, just think its unlikely given the depth of the position in the draft and it not being a pressing hole. But if the draft fell poorly for us, and TE was a clear cut BPA, then not out of the question Beane sticks true to his board and goes BPA. And if TE was BPA, I still think Beane tries to find a trade back partner first before going TE. But, that being said, I don't expect TE to be BPA when we are on the clock at 27.

No offense, but I don’t think some of you understand what the magnitude of changing an offense is. And to expect a team led by an elite QB with an aggressive downfield attack that over the past 3 years is cumulatively the top offense just for a rookie TE is unrealistic. There has been no TE more hyped as a major weapon coming out college in the past decade than Kyle Pitts. And what has he done? Historically TE’s are slower to develop too. We are an offense with a very good TE who has 15 TDs the past 2 seasons despite averaging only 68 targets those 2 seasons. How many targets is a second TE going to get behind Knox? 20? 30? This is a team who has brought in multiple WRs, now has multiple pass catching RBs…a second TE is going to be like 7th or 8th on the priority list at best for targets. And if you look at Super Bowl winners, you won’t find any that feature a 2 TE passing attack.

Appreciate the work, but to be honest, I am not a fan of this draft nor do I think it’s realistic, and not just for the Bills, but it’s not realistic in general IMHO. Bills would not take a TE with Quentin Johnson still on the board (also don’t think Johnson lasts until the 2nd round). Furthermore, if Addison reached 25 I am confident Bills would have made a small trade up to get him. I still think there is very little chance we go TE round 1, especially with how deep TE position is. Bills don’t need a TE1, they need a second TE. Spending a first round pick on a guy who is going to be second string to a highly paid TE that only saw 65 targets and never even gotten 70 targets is just not realistic. Using a first round pick on a player who’s gonna get like 30 targets isn’t very appealing. Even though I don’t want to go LB at 27, I would still rather go LB (over a TE) who will at least have a chance to start and be a potential relevant contributor than a second string guy at a position this offense doesn’t feature.

I can also take Ravens since they pick right after my Chargers pick and can make them at the same time, or any other left over team(s) if you need to get this going before your surgery.