Alphadawg7

Yeah, I think wether Beane said so or not, Shakir is the clear penciled in "starter" at slot entering camp. Sherfield is WR3 behind Diggs and Davis, and Harty is going to be a gadget player and occasional deep ball threat. And I expect him to hold on to that starter designation and open the season that way too.

I think you underestimate just how strong our schedule is. I’m optimistic we will win 11-13 games still, but it’s not the lock you think it is. AFCE is much tougher with Rodgers in it. But we also play the AFC West, NFC East which has both Super Bowl teams in them, and we play Cincy who we didn’t look competitive against in the shortened game or playoff game.

Actually, this is not accurate. Peyton had a winning record vs Brady in the playoffs going 3-2 vs Brady. He faced Brady 4 times as a Colt (2-2) and once as a Bronco (1-0). Peyton doesn't have more Championships because he wasn't the same guy in the post season. And in the only 2 SB's he "won" he beat Rex Grossman the first time, and then in Denver he was the worst passer in the NFL that season and had statistically the worst Super Bowl game of a winning QB in NFL history. Tyrod Taylor could have been the QB in that Super Bowl and they would have still won the game as it was all defense and run game for the Broncos that got them a win. So I think they missed out on multiple championships because Peyton was the A-Rod (baseball A-Rod) of the NFL...gaudy regular season guy, not as dominating in the post season. Manning still holds the NFL record for going 1 and done 9 times in Indy, including several of those being as the #1 seed. Yet only 2 of those 9 losses were to Brady.

Agree with most of this, but with McD I am pretty optimistic about him calling plays, more so than worried. Dorsey still has a lot of question marks for me, but hoping he learned a lot year 1 and makes significant strides in year 2.

Personally, my confidence in Davis was sky high last offseason and the polar opposite this offseason to where I now question if he is capable of even being a good WR2 or is just better suited to be a good WR3. So I am hoping you are correct right now, because even though Kincaid has not stepped on the field yet, I have more confidence in his reliability to make the plays than I do in Davis. Heading into camp, feels like Davis would be best suited as more of a 3rd option where we feed Diggs and Kincaid and then focus more on putting Davis in the spots he is most comfortable to make plays with confidence. At the same time, my bigger concern is Dorsey figuring out how to get Kincaid relevant targets still. Yes it is easy for us all to sit back and say Dorsey will use him like Beasley today...its another thing to see him really do it on the field. Last year he struggled to use our personnel for the way they were intended when we acquired them. Cook and Hines were brought in last year to be receiving weapons and despite the struggles at slot and the need to get Josh more help, Dorsey just didn't use them this way and didn't use Hines at all. Knox was brought here a developmental weapon at TE, and he leads the team in catch % the last 2 seasons and also has 15 TD's....yet he only got 65 targets this year, again in a season where the slot position was struggling and Josh needed a reliable weapon. And Shakir showed promise but couldn't get time at the slot despite the slot struggles. I will have a lot more confidence in whether or not Kincaid will truly be a major part of the pass attack when I see Dorsey actually use him that way. Kincaid isn't much of a blocker right now, so if Dorsey treats him more as a TE2 than he isn't going to take Knox off the field a lot and might end up with less than 50 targets and put up a season of 30-35 rec and like 400 yards and a few TDs. So I am hoping Dorsey truly does use him as more of a big slot than a TE, if he does, Kincaid could be 2nd in targets by seasons end.

I mean it does match and correlate though with how Beane handles the situation and moved up to get the player he said was the only one they felt still had a first round grade. And keep in mind, both times we picked at the back end of the round where there isn’t going to be many guys left with first round grades on anyone’s board. So IMHO I think Beane is being authentic here given where we picked, him moving up, and based on who was left on the board that we would potentially draft.

True...but you also are not looking for a "serviceable" RB when you take one in the top 10. Not defending Atlanta, they had a very good rookie RB last year, so puzzled why they take another and I definitely would have picked someone else. But, just saying when you take a RB in first round in general, it's because you want more than a "serviceable" guy.

Solid signing as insurance for Harris. I mean there was no backup no the roster for Harris as neither Cook or Hines could do what he will be used for, so this felt inevitable after they didn't draft one.

Or maybe they don't have a QB anymore who can elevate the game of players through his own ability and they feel the less talented Jordan Love can't succeed without more help?

As someone expecting his first born here anytime between now and the next few weeks, this was both heartbreaking and terrifying when I got the text alert of this earlier. Can’t even imagine what they are going through and heart goes to him and his family.

Mahomes was polarizing leading up to the draft. Many people in media, here, etc hated the idea of him at 10 but were all for it in the second or in a trade down. Then others thought he should definitely go first half of first round. I did not want him at 10 for example because I hated the idea of taking a QB early who everyone said needs to change all his mechanics to succeed and I had no faith at all we were the team to successfully help him do that at the time. We had just hired a DC as HC and had historically been awful at developing project QBs. Only QB I was comfortable with taking at 10 that year was Watson. I wouldn’t have been pissed if we took Mahomes, but I preferred trading down to get him or just taking Watson.

Whitner had a very solid career and definitely was a successful player. However…everyone and their mom would have bet the house Haloti Ngata was going to be our pick at 8. It was as big a no brainer as there can be in a draft. Bills took a guy that was expected to be a late first or second round player at 8 overall. So can’t say Whitner was a bust like a lot of people here would say who never got over passing on Ngata as he had a pretty solid career and better than a lot of guys who went after him and even before him. But the reach here did not have a better career than the guy everyone said we should have taken. Ngata was amongst the best players from this draft, and arguably the best DT in the league at times during his career. So while the Whitner reach did work out to where he had a solid career, it still was a bad pick over the guy everyone was outraged we didn’t take. And it wasn’t revisionist kind out outrage, everyone was furious the moment it happened that it wasn’t Ngata. My aunt had just died and we were clearing out her house during the draft getting ready for the estate sale of her stuff. And I was stunned when they called Whitners name. I remember thinking at least we are getting Ngata to help boost my mood that day, but nope…I was speechless when it happened.

Yes, this thread length is comically long...and I think there are some people here who have definitely clanged to life on this story for sure, but I will say this in their defense...this particular story has been hard core gas lit by not only the media, but our own players, and Hopkins himself. Media has reportedly linked us as one of the 3 destinations per "sources". Hopkins has not only dropped hints at Buffalo for weeks now, but he has flat out said he wants to play here to the media and to fellow Bills players. Our own players have talked about him wanting to play here and some of them have posted pics with Hopkins further fanning the flames that maybe something was close. So, all in all...I don't think anyone is here cuz they like to "waste our time", this story is actually one of the few that had pretty significant teeth to it and that bite kept getting refreshed along the way with new stuff. Granted, reading all the 267 pagres of posts in this thread can be a bit of a waste of time because its the same regurgitated conversation over and over again in between new things that come out from players or the media gas lighting new hope/speculation.

I wouldn’t rule out including a WR in the trade either though. If we can land Hopkins, no one outside Diggs is safe given the amount of upgrade Hopkins is. Gabe is entering the final year of his deal, and I think it’s fair to say they don’t value him enough to pay him what the market will dictate given how much interest they have had in WRs that would be blatant or potential upgrades to him like Hopkins, OBJ, Jeudy, and a first round WR. Now, at this point I am skeptical we land Hopkins. I think Hopkins was the fall back plan if they didn’t get a big time weapon prospect in the draft. Now that they added Kincaid, I’m not so sure they are going to be as inclined to do what it takes to get him. There are only so many balls to go around, and this team is pretty deep with weapons after the upgrades that have been made this offseason. I would love to get Hopkins still, but I’ve gone from thinking it was quite possible or close to happening, to more it’s still possible, just not as likely. NOTE: Also, Beane is still going to spend more cal space on vet DL guys too at least, which further restricts our spending. Doesn’t make it impossible, but would take more maneuvering to do it

Yeah, hard to take a list seriously that shows all the A- and A grades and doesn't have the Eagles somewhere on it.

Nope, it has not been edited, so sorry, that is incorrect. What I stated in the OP is still there, and its quoted below. You started your whole thing on Dallas with another poster who was commenting in this thread. Here is exactly what my OP said then and says now.

Yeah, they said when they were studying Dion who went 3rd overall if I recall, they couldn't keep their eyes off Kiko and that is how he shot up their board

Yeah, I would have personally probably taken a corner there for the Lions at 12

Oh yeah, forgot about that...although I would have still traded back. I liked the trade back on a team with so many holes. But I see what you meant now. That is a good question, I still like the trade back, I would have just not taken a RB at 12 personally.

EDIT: On the trade back, I still like the move back on a team with a lot of holes. I wouldnt have taken a RB at 12 personally, but again, my whole point is if you look at the haul of players and not the draft slot or the would have should have scenarios, I like their draft for their team. They traded Hockenson when they were losing, and after an up and down tenure with the Lions, were not planning to pay him what he is going to fetch next year after his 5th year option is done. Some think he could reset the TE market, and he definitely wasn't playing to that level of value in Detroit. So rather than pay him, they traded him and got back a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a TE, that is a pretty good haul and more than some top WR's got traded for. Curious...prior to the draft, if there was no cap hit, would you have traded Knox and his $13M salary for a 2nd and 3rd in a TE rich draft? Just know, Knox last 2 years are pretty close to Hockenson career averages, and over the last 2 seasons, Knox has 5 more TD's and a higher catch %. And I think LaPorta has a ton of potential as a weapon and if he develops they get him on a rookie deal for 4 years. So I don't blame the Lions for trading Hock for a 2nd and 3rd ahead of a TE rich draft rather than having to make him one of the highest paid TE's next year, if not the highest. PS: For the record, I like Knox, wasn't suggesting we should have traded him.

Probably doesn't fit the mold exactly as you are looking for...but I would make the case for Mario Williams first overall. How is he a "reach" given he was a top 10 draft prospect...because when the Texans and 49ers faced off in week 17 to end the season, it was dubbed the "Reggie Bush" bowl with the loser getting the first overall pick which was "supposed" to be Bush by a landslide to go first overall. I mean that was the most talked about game between two terrible teams than I can ever remember leading up to it. More importantly, the Texans were 4 years into the awful David Carr era and badly needed a QB too with both Vince Young and Matt Leinart there as well. Then they shocked the world and made what many considered a laughing stock pick of Mario Williams over Bush...and over a QB such as Young or Leinart. But, Mario Williams was the only player out of all those guys to have long and excellent career. I get this isn't the traditional reach given Mario was gonna go in the top 10, but it was one of the most ridiculed picks I can remember in modern draft history. And its also the one where the player taken had a substantially better career than all of the other players they were allegedly "supposed" to take.

Good call and considering these were 2 of the most frustrating things to the fan base too, I would say its a safe bet Beane felt the same. My 3rd and 4th biggest frustrations last year were Frazier's weak playoff defense and Dorsey's rookie issues. Thankfully one is gone, and the other at least has potential to be better being its only his 2nd year as an OC. So all in all, pretty stoked about this offseason.

Fair counter, appreciate the detailed response. I don't personally agree with some of these, but that is ok, everyone sees things differently. I get your point on the RB, but its not the same run game from last year. They lost over 1000 yards and 17 TDs when Jamaal left, and lost another 500+ yards when they parted with Swift trading him to the Eagles for a bag of chips. He seemed to fall out of favor some last year when even healthy Jamaal was seeing more carries. Gibbs now has a clear path to a big role in Detroit, who use their RB's a lot in this current offense. Positional value is different from team to team. For example, what the Niners paid for CMC would not have made a lot of sense for other teams, but made perfect sense for the 49ers offense. And like I said...strip away the "when" they were drafted and look at the players and the roster, and these guys just landed 4 starters and project QB with potential in the first 3 rounds.

I said Hooker has potential as a backup, potential to push Goff, or potential trade value if he shows any promise if Goff locks the job down. Did not say he is gonna for sure be a franchise QB lmao And stop with the whole Stafford thing. Lions were going nowhere with Stafford, lets not pretend they gave up a Super Bowl by trading him. He went to a Super Bowl ready team, the Lions were nowhere near that lol.

I gave them an A given we got such good value and some potentially great picks for us while also boosting our draft pick arsenal next year. Kincaid and O'Cyrus were both guys I thought could be off the board (and most pre-draft mocks had the same) before our 27th pick, and we got them both. Kincaid should be an immediate impact weapon for us, and he better be for Dorsey's sake, and O'Cyrus just bolstered our OL potential significantly. We added players at positions we needed to and we added a lot of size and toughness to this team on the offense, something that was sorely lacking last year. I did not know a lot about Dorian prior to the draft, mainly because I thought we might go LB earlier in the first 2 rounds, but after digging around on him since we drafted him more, I am intrigued and look forward to see if can make an impact this year. I also liked the Shorter pick, adding size to the WR room like him is nice, especially since it sounds like he can play ST and earn a spot that way. Pretty excited about this draft to be honest. All I know, is I wanted to this team get tougher in the trenches, redzone, and in bad weather. And I think Beane did a good job overall this whole offseason on that.