Alphadawg7

So Diggs didn't have well over 1000 yards? Cook didn't rush for 1200 yards with 50 receptions? Davis didn't score any of those TD's? Kincaid didn't catch over 70 balls as a rookie? So the entire offense and all those receptions and passing yards were all Josh, had nothing to do with the guys catching them? Got it. No offense, but I can't stand this gross exaggeration argument people make that it was "ALL" just Allen. I watched many of his weapons make sensational plays to bail Josh out, or take short plays and turn them into TD's for Allen. Can Allen get more help...sure, every QB can. To say it was only Allen is so over the top. A guy who had a top 3 to top 5 WR the past 4 years, something most teams don't.

If you followed my posting career I think you will see I am not going to cling to my priors either and I also don't make conclusive statements about things we have never seen, like this offense. And even now, I am not saying the offense will be great...I believe in this group today, but make no mistake it's totally unproven both in personnel and Brady. So if they struggle, I will want the changes to address the areas we are struggling as much as anyone. I asked you because you tend to talk about the Bills weapons the past 4 years like it mirrored something like the Pats last year. Allen has had a better group around him than people give him credit for, and I think its a bit of an over exaggeration to say its all him. I do agree that Allen needs more from his top guys in the playoffs where Diggs for example just never had a good postseason.

Here you go again...this is as stupid of an exercise as declaring who won the offseason on paper or who had the best draft a day after the draft. The TRUTH is, that YOU have no idea how good or bad our group is...YOU have never seen them on the field together with Allen in this offense, and one has never taken a single snap because he is a rookie. And when I say YOU...it means all of us, but I am highlighting you because you are foolish enough to make conclusive declarations NOW before you have seen the product. Its fine to be concerned or doubt it, but you like to say it's bad before knowing if it is or isn't and a LOT of people do NOT share your negative opinion, including a lot of analysis who think this group is pretty exciting.

I have an honest question here for you: If Allen has a great season, maybe his best season, maybe even an MVP season...are you going to look at it as it was all Allen and he dragged this roster along with him...or will it be because he had a better cast that was better utilized around him? Well we traded one away...one is a rookie, and one is a 2nd year player. Does NOT change the investment Beane made, and you only make it sound bad because you refuse to even acknowledge Kincaid and you didn't like the Keon pick. Truth is, we don't know how good or bad this room is until we see it on the field...you on the other hand have already made concrete conclusions and statements about how "bad" it is.

He likes to cherry pick things to make false conclusions that support his negative bias. Of course Diggs and Kincaid count...but he won't acknowledge that because if he does it means the Bills have used their FIRST pick in the draft on a weapon for Josh in 3 of the past 5 drafts. He will do anything to not have to admit that.

Rookie QB contracts cause teams to make dumb decisions. I think within the next 5 years when the evidence is overwhelming that paying this much for a WR becomes more of an anchor on the team than creating SB winners that we will see WR contract sizes regress much like we saw with RB's. Not saying to as low as RB's are, but I think they will come back down closer to mid 20's as the top of the market at some point.

This is your original post above I responded to. You gave the example of $330,000 into the Index Fund and said it would be worth $1.32m today and then you compared that to owning ONE home in the example I provided...which was an oversight mistake because the player did NOT invest $330,000 into the home, they invested $30,000 on the down payment only. So that led to you incorrectly comparing a 20 year return on a single $30,000 real estate investment to the 20 year return on 11 times more starting money at $330,000 in an index fund. NOTE: I made my own oversight mistake in my previous response and provided the math on if he did 20 properties because I had just done the math on that and mistakenly was thinking of that. So the correct comparison if they had invested $330,000 into the real estate under the same parameters of the first transaction ($330,000 home, $30k down) then they would have actually acquired 11 homes and after 20 years his initial $330,000 would now be $7.27 million dollars which is nearly 6 times the value your index fund returned. $330,000 into each and your fund gets $1.32m and the real estate gets you $7.27m...I don't know anyone who would prefer to take $1.32 million over $7.27 million. That is a 568% better return on investment. And the real estate investment would include rental income on 11 properties every month for life, and once the properties are owned free and clear, owning 11 homes in the $800k range could easily average $4k a month in rental income (I know because my wife and I looking at places across 4 states right now to both buy and rent). So they would be looking at $528,000 a year in income for the rest of their lives, which will grow as rents rise over time and grow if they increase their property holdings. That means in the first 2.5 to 3 years they would net (rents minus impounds) about what your fund did in 20 years. Even if you lower the rental expectations to $3k that is still $400,000 a year so in 3.5 to 4 years they would net about what your fund did in 20 years still. And this doesn't factor in future equitable gains. No disrespect, but I have said this many times now...I have NEVER once suggested to over leverage oneself and have repeatedly said 2 things: NEVER over leverage and that they should DIVERSIFY and do BOTH (Caps are not to yell...just highlight). Once again, this is a multi-millionaire athlete, investing $330,000 into real estate comes no where close over leveraging said player. My aunt literally did this exact same thing while making $150,000 a year and has 12 properties (11 SFR houses and 1 small 4 unit strip mall) and a 13th bonus vacation cabin on Lake Tahoe and is retired and living on the rents making nearly $40,000 a month for life on those rents as she used surplus along the way to pay the mortgages down. So I 100% agree to NEVER over leverage, but this is not a scenario where this specific player is over leveraged by any means, not even close. And the reason its hard for a lot of people to understand this is because the rents are the LEAST important factor and the only role they play is determining if said person can afford to do this or not...and by afford, that means they can handle holding costs during vacancies, unexpected repairs, etc. The value of someone else paying your mortgage off combined with historical equitable gains is where you make your money. You don't even need to break even on the rents for the holding to have huge returns on a long term scale. Its all good, been a fun convo...its not like investing in a fund is a bad thing, I think they should do both. But for me, Funds value is in providing safe avenues to preserve money and still get some decent growth out of it. Long term Real Estate is where I put my money to grow wealth and retirement income.

Ha...well I joined in midway when the convo seemed to go index funds vs real estate. And my main comment is that real estate should out pace the fund and its good to do both...and then those comments took off lol. The nature of of a message board though, was interesting none the less.

I had Davis as my 3rd best RB in the draft on my board and felt like he wasn't just a piece to compliment Cook, he was a guy who could take over at some point too. So I would think Beane saw some of the same things in him. The real question for me is if Davis and Cook become more of a 50/50 tandem and Cook doesn't command an egregious amount as a FA and prefers to stay on a home town discount. 2 important things is that we don't have a top heavy WR1 contract now and Von's deal will be gone. So we would have the cap flexibility to retain Cook of the deal was reasonable. If I had to put money on it now though, I would say that Cook probably doesn't get the 2nd contract here. Which also makes me wonder if Beane tries to trade Cook a year early if Davis comes in and has a strong rookie year.

Oh yeah, and it's the main reason why him and Shaq clashed and eventually split.

I get that...but when you are NFL player you don't need immediate returns and cash flow as its not your income. So applying the power of leverage for long term gains becomes substantially more valuable to them. But hey, even if they did pay cash for the property, it would still be a great move for them.

No disrespect, as a Laker fan, Kobe is maybe my favorite player all-time in the NBA. Of course Kobe had talent...what I said is what Kobe himself said many times during his career...which was that hard work beats talent. And that was his mindset his whole career leading up to and in the NBA. He never felt he was the most talented player, but he knew he was the hardest working player and that no one was going to out work him at becoming the best. I think you misread what I wrote because you seem to have more the impression it meant he had no talent and only got there on hard work...but that wasn't what I wrote.

Bills might be facing a tough decision heading into 2025 if Cook has another good year this year. Cook will be on the final year of his deal in 2025...so do you think if he keeps playing at a high level they commit to him with an extension or do you think they avoid having an expensive RB and either try and trade him or just let him walk in FA?

I think I would phrase it different… They hit a grand slam with Allen and I would say they have several home runs on the roster too. I think the thing is more they haven’t hit another grand slam, drafting that elite impact player that is one of the best players on their side of the ball in the league. Kincaid though has the potential to be (I won’t include anyone from this draft class since they haven’t taken a snap yet). There are a lot of guys I would say fall into the triples or home run category on the roster between their on field performance vs draft slots. Taron for example is a home run IMHO.

I never changed the topic because I never commented to you or things you said. I joined a side convo where there was discussion of real estate vs index funds on why I think people should do both. Then you decided to start commenting at me under your previous context even though none of my posts were directed at you or what you had previously proposed. But since you brought it back to your original thoughts, technically all I’m discussing is really a 3rd option where a player does both…rent and buy. Now it’s ok that you don’t agree with me on the 3rd option, but my part of this convo was never directed at you or your original comments. But given you have brought the two discussions together multiple times now, I will say it’s not only a viable 3rd option to your original 2, but also a great option to both preserve and grow newfound wealth for these rookies. For example, If Chris gamble would have done it 20 years ago as the 28th pick in the 2004 draft, his assets and portfolio would be almost double the gross value (even before agents and taxes) of his entire 5 year rookie contract today with permanent significant monthly income for life. So feel free to dismiss it or disagree with it, that’s fine, but doesn’t change the fact that a young player getting early assets as a rookie into long term holdings could literally set him up for life after football. And as an investment property, it doesn’t have to be KC, it can be anywhere they feel best about.

I don’t know, it’s not 20 years later. And when it’s an investment property you can buy anywhere, not just KC.

It takes more than physical traits to make it in the NFL. This isn’t the kind of start you want to see from your first round WR if I am KC. Keon is not only physically gifted, he has all those other qualities that you can’t teach…those qualities you need to be great. Kobe Bryant knew he wasn’t the most talented player coming into the NBA, so he made up for that by out working everyone else to become the best. From what we have seen and heard from Keon, I feel like he’s got that kind of drive and mindset where it’s not about flash and bling…it’s all football all the time for this kid. What kind of potential and what he becomes in the NFL is yet to be known…but what I do know I am confident in is that Keon will reach what ever his potential is, because he will put in the work to make sure he does. Keon is the kind of prospect I always want and root for.

I get that…but last year…Maybe that had more to do with Tre, Milano, and Bernard all missing the playoffs and being forced to lean on people like Von…who was a ghost of Von. Not to mention Jones had just gotten back after a long injury stretch and wasn’t back to peak form either.

Well remember the subject person here…a first round draft pick with substantially more means than necessary to buy 20 properties with 10% down. I’m not suggesting someone stretch themselves thin, and would never suggest to over leverage oneself. In 2004 the 28th pick was Chris Gamble who signed a $7.5m rookie contract with a $2.75m signing bonus and annual salary of $1.5m. He could have easily bought those homes with 7 figures left over and $1.5m salary coming every year after.

No offense but your math is wrong here. He didn’t invest $330,000 in 2004, he invested $30,000. Had he invested $330,000 (that would have bought 11 homes in that scenario) it would be with $7.271 million which is a lot more than $1.28 million from your fund.

I get that, but I introduced a 3rd option because he can do both…rent and still buy long term real estate property, and quite frankly it’s by far the better option IMHO. Plus I joined into the discussion when index funds and real estate were being discussed.

Agree to disagree on whether investment homes are worth it or not. I’ll take the permanent income for life from the rents which are all mostly profit once other people pay your mortgage which is also something you are not considering in your comparison. Player buys 20 houses putting 10% down that’s $600k outlay and would be worth $12.6M today based on the earlier parameters. And once the mortgages are paid off the rents would be earning him an additional $800,000 to $1,200,000 annually in income on top of the future equitable gains. Again, good to do both and be diversified.

But the money gained on real estate is not just the equitable property gains, that was only 1 of 3 ways property brings returns. It was a 17.5% annual rate of return...$30k into $661,000 in 20 years...and that was being conservative on rents and not factoring in larger gains if they bought in growth areas. It also doesn't factor in leveraging the equity gained into additional property. This is a common oversight that comes up all the time when people want to discuss real estate gains vs funds. They forget or overlook the equitable gains from someone else paying off your mortgage, only the capital gains above the acquisition price. For example, just the equitable gains from the mortgage pay down from someone else paying your mortgage over 20 years alone in the example above was $143,000. Which that aspect alone returns more over 20 years than a fund at 8% annual return (which was $110,000), and I think most people would love a fund that had an 8% annual return for 20 years. Expecting a fund to match or best a 17.5% annual return feels unrealistic to me. Again...not against investing in the funds by any means...you should always diversify. But my personal trust for growing wealth is in real estate. But honestly, if Worthy and these athletes just did either of these they would be wise...but most unfortunately aren't wise with their money.

I have been saying this all offseason. The vast majority of SB winners didn't have that elite WR1 everyone swears we need. Some did sure...just like some won on defense and a run game because there is more than one way to win a SB. But most SB winners don't have that elite WR1 and it's in no way a prerequisite to win a SB like some seem to think around here.

Definitely wise to diversify your portfolio, so things like an Index Fund are never a bad idea...however, over long term, an index fund should honestly never outperform real estate unless you buy really bad real estate. And while putting money into a fund is obviously easier, real estate really isn't hard to manage as you can just hire a property management company to handle it. Avg home value in the US is 242% higher today than 20 years ago. You buy an investment property 20 years ago for $330,000 it would be worth $800,000 today based on the national average. And lets say you carried a $300,000 mortgage at 6%, the balance today would be $157,000 giving you another $143,000 in equitable gains from someone else paying your mortgage. And that is all before you factor any earnings from the rents. Rental prices have also gone way up over 20 years, but if you keep it modest and say over 20 years your avg net monthly gain (Rent - Mtg, Tax, Ins, Repairs, Vacancies, etc) was just $200 a month (and over 20 years it would very likely be much higher than that) that would be another $48,000. Their original $30k investment would be worth $661,000 in 20 years...or basically equivalent of getting a 17.5% annual rate of return. Now compare that to a fund...if that fund averaged an 8% return it would be worth about $140,000 in 20 years. Thats $521,000 less in gains over that time. And as you can see the gap is so wide that you don't even have to have the real estate equal the national averages for it to greatly out perform a fund, and if you buy in an area that outperforms the national average the returns would be even greater. And keep in mind these are athletes we are talking about, so affordability isn't a question and they could buy 10 or 20 of these houses to start. And as they make more money along the way, keep adding more properties to their portfolio as they made more money if the chose. If I was advising these athletes, I would highly encourage them to rent and get their money diversified into both long term real estate holdings and long term securities. They did that, they would still have plenty of money for their lives now and would be building wealth and income for retirement. Once those properties are paid off, the rents are mostly profit, and with the kind of holdings they can have by then they would be looking at tens of thousand, to even well into 6 figures in MONTHLY income for the rest of their lives. But...then there are idiots like Worthy.