Alphadawg7

Good write up and thanks for the insight and data On this part, I can't speak for the media or other posters...but the only "should not run in gun" stuff I can directly recall is the bone head Dorsey call in back to back weeks on 3rd down and goal inside the 1 when you have Josh Allen at QB. In back to back weeks, inside the 1 on 3rd down Dorsey called a run from shotgun to Murray. On both plays Bills lost yards. First one, Bills went for it and got the TD on a throw on 4th down. Against the Pats the next week we went for again also and did not convert and got 0 points against Pats, a game we lost by 1 score later that game. There is no run from shotgun, or any formation for that matter, that would have a better statistical conversion rate as a QB Sneak or Tush Push would from inside the 1 yard line with Josh Allen. And clearly they were going for it regardless (since they did go for it both times on 4th), so you had 2 chances to get less than a yard for a score with Josh Allen on a sneak or tush push. A play which I believe I saw a stat that it has an 85% success rate on down and 1 or less across the league and the Bills convert over Allens career at a higher rate than that. And you got 2 plays to get it making it well over a 90% chance to score within those 2 plays. Dumb part, is they snuck Allen later after this to get a first down but not on the goal line.

AJE couldn't get on the field a lot early either...I wouldn't write off Elam yet. There are real question marks about Tre's future as this is another tough injury to come back from. There could still be a place for Elam here who has shown flashes. Elam's story is a 3 part story IMHO: Tre, Benford and Dane were all good DB's in their own right and wasn't going to be easy for Elam to beat them out. Elam's fit into this defense depended on how well he could improve in certain areas of his game. He went on IR shortly after the opportunity for more playing time arose. One thing we know about Elam is he is dedicated to his craft and getting better. So I think its too early to give up on Elam right now. We have seen plenty of rookies struggle to make an impact early on and then really turn it on when their number was called. Look at AJE, Cook, Shakir, Bernard, etc who didn't contribute a lot as rookies but later have as their opportunities increased. I do also personally think trading draft picks for Diggs should count on his draft performance. Diggs is the palyer he netted with picks, and that trade had plenty of skeptics and critics too when it happened. Flipping picks to land an elite player that impacted this team as much as Diggs did is as much a homerun as drafting one IMHO.

And that is just it...confident, no hesitation Josh is one of the few that can make that throw. When Josh isn't confident and is even a fraction late on that throw, its a Sauce INT. It was nice to see him have his swagger back.

Devin was a good player for us, he was under used. Its not like Devin stunk and then went somewhere else to get good. He had a great YPC here, but we were an aggressive pass offense with a QB who could run. Any RB we had here under Daboll wasn't going to be a staple of the offense here, that was not how Daboll ran his offense. So that isn't on Beane. This is a fair take and can't really disagree with much of it. I was here with you until the emergence we have seen from several of our younger players this year. The ability to find pretty good to very good players outside of the 1st round just put me over the top enough to raise his grade to an A. But I also feel its fair to want to wait until some of those young guys on the rise like Kincaid, Cook, and Bernard reach "great" status on their own before you are willing to elevate your grade.

Love it, he needs that confidence and swagger back! Funny, the Shakir pass is one of those wow plays that even a fraction of a hair off was an INT where people would be killing him...but when Allen is on and confident, he hits those so much more often than he doesn't. The real question is how will Allen, Brady, and the offense respond when there is a hiccup and things aren't going great? Can they keep that swagger, adjust, and come right back like they used to or will they get in a rut again like they did during that 6 week slump? Personally, I think this is the start of a full turn around for this offense.

That is fair, but at the same time, a LOT goes into winning a championship or not. 31 teams are disappointed every year including one who makes the SB. It is easy to make a case that in 2021 Beane put the best roster in the NFL on the field and saw a ST coaching blunder fumble it away in 13 seconds. 2022 can't blame Beane for Tre not being himself, Von getting hurt, Hamlin scare, Knox brothers death, mass shooting, deadly blizzards, Araiza false accusation, Daboll getting a HC gig, etc etc that all impacted the team throughout the year. So when it comes to grading his drafts, I am going to put aside the fact we have not yet won a SB because so much more than just his role as a GM goes into that.

Bonus Points: Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too. Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.

Good question...I only care because I bet on him every year to win it for 3 years now straight lol. I make the same $100 bet each year, so he needs to win it in the next couple years for me to be ahead when he does win it without having to up my bet lol.

I find most people's take on draft night are rooted in 2 silly things...the stupid over valuing of what "draft number" they were taken at and what limited amount of names they know vs the many ones they don't know. This past draft, I argued in a number of threads (I think I even started my own about it) that the Lions had maybe the best draft in the NFL when everyone was giving them the lowest grade...and why did they get a low grade, because they took a "RB" at 12 in Gibbs. So stupid...they landed the 2nd best RB prospect, the best LB prospect, the best S prospect, and the 2nd best TE prospect all in the first 2 rounds. I told everyone it does not matter where a player is drafted once the pads go on, it matters what that players brings to their team. And so far, the Lions draft class is paying off huge for them and a massive reason they are 8-2 including that RB pick everyone hated the draft slot of. While draft convo is always fun, really grading anyones draft before players have played a single down is pretty pointless and useless. That is why it usually takes 3 seasons to really know how a draft really graded out.

I disagree...Josh wanted Dorsey, so that played a lot into it and its pretty typical to promote within. So hard to fault them for elevating Dorsey when Daboll got a HC gig. And while I agree, Dorsey should have been fired sooner, its also not a surprise they stuck with him to see if he could turn it around first. But he made the change, and hopefully it wasn't too late. 12 men on the field I won't argue with, even though that is the ST Coordinators primary job, the HC needs to catch that too, so that is fair criticism.

Forget out team record this year (there are a lot of factors in that)...but one silver lining has been we have seen a lot of young players begin to emerge into good to even great players for us this year. So I am curious if the emergence of these young players, many of which were written off or not thought much of prior to the start of the season, has impacted people's view of his draft history. Personally, I already thought Beane had done well in the draft...but he obviously still had his fair share of critics around here. Some of those players include: AJE, Bernard, Benford, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid, O'Cyrus, Dorian, and even Oliver to an extent. AJE - (2nd round)A long time whipping boy around here despite having a mini breakout last year with 6.5 sacks in a rotational role. He has become a very good player for us this season already matching his sack total last year and on pace for 10 sacks, plus he has an INT and defensive TD. Bernard - (3rd round)Labeled a bust by many the moment he was drafted and considered a major liability by most heading into this season. But he has been one of the defenses best players for this team on the season. Benford - (6th round) Seen as a guy only playing because Elam wasn't ready to winning the 3 way battle and playing like a starting corner. Shakir - (5th round) Disregarded by many just because he fell to the 5th round, falsely labeled by many of not having good hands mostly because of one tough catch in the playoff last year. Now he is becoming a staple in the offense with his snap count rising from 10% week 1 to now 80% nearly this week. Has the best catch rate on the team. Cook - (2nd round) Considered a change of pace 3rd down back with little value as a featured runner. Currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards despite Dorsey's struggle with consistently involving him and looking like a long term important player for this offense right now. Kincaid - (1st round) He did have a lot of hype, but was too early to know, but he is proving that hype is legit and now the 2nd best receiving weapon on the team. O'Cyrus - (2nd round) Instant starter and while he has had some rookie struggles, he has really made an impact on the OL for the most part. Oliver - (1st round) Most were against his extension, now he not only is proving he was worth it, he has become one of the elite DT's in the NFL this year under McD's defense. So has this impacted your view of his draft history seeing these guys really start to emerge and breakout this year? NOTE: I think AJE, Cook, and O'Cyrus play is getting to the point that the old "Beane can't draft in the 2nd round" criticism is headed for retirement. For the record, my vote was: B Grade A Grade Better

Beane has made a lot of very good picks, so it may be a tad early to label Kincaid the 2nd best just yet. However, he is certainly trending that way. But Oliver is in that convo, but also guys like Cook, Bernard, Benford, etc have great cases given where he found those picks too. Kincaid is supposed to be a stud, those guys were after thoughts by most people here and are very good players for us now.

How did McD create this mess? Was it his fault we lost Tre, Milano and Daquan? I mean he has done a pretty epic job at managing the defense despite the loss of those guys along with other guys missing time like Benford, Bernard, Oliver, etc along the way too. And if 1 game is any indicator of what is to come, Dorsey was the "mess" of the offense, and McD made the change to fix that. So I am not sure what "mess" you are referring to that you are pinning solely on McD other than to just do a blanket blame McD for everything because you have been against McD as the HC for a while. He was a raw rookie lmao. And BOTH McD and Beane said the plan was Allen to start week 1 until the 3rd preseason game almost got Allen killed by the OL and they didn't want to throw him to the wolves and let him get a little more practice time in given how bad the OL was before putting him out there. That is the ONLY reason Peterman started, and he didn't make it through a game before they had enough and said screw it, we need to go with Allen.

The offense was everything many of us have been yelling for it to be for a year now. Motion with purpose, screen passes, creativity, using Josh's legs, under center, getting our RB's, Kincaid, and Shakir more involved in the pass game, etc. Dorsey - Just called plays, not an offense. Brady - Was everything that Dorsey wasn't (in this 1 game at least) Its one game, but it was an incredible start to the Joe Brady interim trial. Now, we need to see consistency, we need to see the offense over come adversity, we need to see the adjustments if things aren't working, etc. But I am a LOT more optimistic about next week than I was before we saw this change. That was a Jets D that gave us trouble last year and this year, also gave a lot of other good QB's trouble. We jsut went out and put the highest score up the Jets have given up all season, and that is factoring in us taking the foot off the gas for the whole 4th quarter. Most points we scored since Week 4 too. We need to win at least one, preferably both, against Eagles and KC these next 2 weeks to keep our playoff hopes realistic. If we lose both, it would be very difficult to make the playoffs without help from other teams. Win both and we will start looking like the best team in the AFC again.

Allen likely would have broke the record much sooner and by more had he had Diggs and Beasley his rookie year too. That game of what if goes both ways. So let me see if I get this straight...Allen already owns the official record and did it in 5 seasons and 4 games because he missed 6 games due to injury and still has 6 games to play this year. I mean its not his fault Mahomes didn't beat out Alex Smith as a rookie to start sooner. But if Allen keeps his current pace and ends up with 45 TD's, if we then ignore every game but Allens last game as a rookie to match Mahomes rookie year and he STILL has more TD's than Mahomes you are saying it STILL won't be legit? So no matter how many ways Allen gets more TD's than Mahomes it will never be a valid record by your eyes is what I get from you. Which is just crazy to me. And Allen's record does NOT mean Allen is better than Mahomes, it means Allen set the record for most total TD's in NFL history over first 6 seasons...and he didn't need 6 seasons to do it, he has done it in 5 seasons and 4 games (he missed 6 due to injury and he still has 6 left to play this year). And considering he started on a rebuilding team with scrubs as weapons his early years, that is quite the accomplishment.

Here is the math: Josh Allen has 6 more games to get finish his 6 seasons. He is on pace for 45 total TD's this year (16 more than he has now). If Allen stays on pace and finishes with 45 he will have 221 for his career through 6 seasons. Mahomes has 204, but Mahomes only played the final game of his rookie year and Allen played 12 games his rookie year. If you back out the first 11 games of Allens Rookie year to match Mahomes, Allen will STILL have more TD's than Mahomes with 208 vs 204. So this whole thing about Mahomes not playing his rookie year is really not a legit counter point to the validity of Allens record as he will likely not only officially own the record, but will also have produced more than Mahomes over their first 5 seasons and 1 rookie year game that everyone is using for Mahomes. And none of that means one QB is better than the other...it means Allens record is legit and even more impressive considering he was saddled with no talent around him on a gutted and rebuilding franchise for the first 2 years to start his career and was also a raw prospect coming in who didn't have the benefit of sitting and learning the game either. If Allen stays on pace, if you remove all but the last game of Allens rookie year, he will still have more TD's than Mahomes while having only the one game of his rookie year just like Mahomes. If that happens, how will you dispute the validity of Allens record then? The argument is that Mahomes didn't play the first season...which is factually wrong. He played the last game. So I am removing Allens rookie year up to the last game JUST LIKE MAHOMES so their rookie years match. And when you do, by seasons end, Allen will still have more TD's than Mahomes if he stays on the pace he is on now.

Agreed, they get a lot of pressure on the QB (3rd in the league) but the defense is beatable. With Joe Brady incorporating so much more motion (most of the season yesterday), more screens, quick passes and Allen under center, they can exploit that Eagles D. A week ago I was doubtful we could beat the Eagles...after seeing the improvements against the toughest defense on our schedule yesterday, I am now much more optimistic we can win this game. Won't be easy, but I think the team we saw Sunday can beat any team in the league. But getting back to your original point, we need to see them do it with consistency and must win at least one of our next 2 games against Philly and KC to keep our playoff hopes in tact.

You didnt answer my question though, and you are ignoring the fact that Josh still has 6 games to go. By seasons end its MORE than likely, that even if you back out Allens first 8 games to match Mahomes that he will STILL have more TD's than Mahomes.

You realize Allen only played 8 more games than Mahomes did right? To pretend that the talent around Mahomes and Allen to start their careers didn't factor into those 8 games is pretty ridiculous. None of that means Allen is "better" than Mahomes, it means Allens accomplishment is worthy of the credit he gets for it.

Geezus man…pointing out Allen had less to work with is not diminishing Mahomes at all. It’s like this board has a reading comprehension problem this morning. Since when are indisputable facts a an insult to another player? Does it make Mahomes less great? NO, not at all. It makes Allen’s accomplishment more impressive considering, but in literally no way, like 0% does it diminish Mahomes, his status as the top guy, etc. But if you want to keep misreading, misinterpreting, and inventing your own narratives about a very factual and clear statement of fact, then so be it. But literally NOT ONE person is saying Allen is better than Mahomes over this record even though you’re trying to spin it if they are. Facts are: Mahomes started with a great roster around him, Allen didn’t. Allen still persevered despite the challenges he had to go through. That is simply an impressive accomplishment for Allen, not in anyway a slight at Mahomes. And Allen still has 6 more games to further extend his lead that could make the first season a moot point too. 1. Who cares. 2. You realize Allen could easily own both records by season end right?

Who could argue that Josh did it with less and still has not finishing his 6th year and by the time he does he could very well still have the record if you remove Allen’s first 15 games to match Mahomes starts? Yet here we are with people arguing and diminishing Allen’s record before he’s even finished establishing what the record is.

I’m not comparing them as players. We are discussing the validity of the record. And stop. Kelvin Benjamin was a joke compared to Hill. Clay is a joke compared to Kelce. If Bills take Mahomes in 2017 he does NOT turn KB and Clay into all time greats and HOF players. No offense, but this argument you’re making about Hill and Kelce is utterly ridiculous. Hill is the best WR in football, and even better now than he was playing with Mahomes. You’re a good poster, but I can’t even fathom how you’re even attempting to act like Mahomes offensive roster players wasn’t light years better than Allen’s when their respective careers started. And again, there are still 6 games left. If Allen avg 3 TDs rest of season he will hold the record even if you take away the first 15 games from Allen’s rookie year (Mahomes stated the last game of his rookie year). This.

I am simply pointing out that it’s really silly to diminish Allen’s accomplishment. And there are still 6 games left…If Allen averages 3 TDS a week he will hold the record even if you take away both Mahomes and Allens first season. So this narrative in here about Mahomes playing only 1 game in his rookie year is even more silly right now.

Agree on needing consistency. However, I saw things yesterday that I have been screaming for Dorsey to do for over a year and that was very encouraging in having confidence that they can get some consistency back. One, we ran the most motion plays of the season and the motion had purpose. Orlovsky pointed out the James Cook TD pass for example, off the motion they see it’s man and with bunches on the right Josh gives 2 thumbs up indicating we are going with the play called in the huddle and Cook comes through across the bunches wide open for the easy TD throw. This is the kind of stuff that has been missing. Peppering in Allen runs as well made them need to account for that as well and creates more pressure on the D. Getting our play makers involved like Kincaid, Shakir, and RBs in the passing game was also refreshing. This next week will really tell us where we are at, but at least there is finally reason for optimism. But for the first time in a while we his team seemed to be having fun and enjoying football again too, and love to see that.

Are we really having a convo about being worried that if we win we will keep McD? Lmao. Bills fans… This might be the most absurd thread of the season…and that’s saying a lot.