Alphadawg7

What part of fumbles play into interception rate on passes attempted vs interceptions thrown? Still waiting for someone to answer that which is the topic of this thread despite the best efforts of some to change the topic to something else. This was about Allens int % compared to other greats to see how often it really is.

Still has nothing to do with the conversation around Josh's interception rate or this thread.

No, you only mentioned 56 fumbles and said those are not lost, but then didn't list the lost number of fumbles. If you know its 23 lost fumbles, then write 23 lost fumbles. Saying 56 and leaving a note that those arent all lost leaves it open to interpretation to seem worse than it is. 23 is a lot less than 56.

Josh Allen has 23 lost fumbles not 56. A fumble is not a turnover, a lost fumble is turnover. None the less, this isnt a thread about fumbles no matter how much you want to make it be.

Bahahaha, didn't notice that haha my bad. Well I also started a thread in 2021 and said we would win out on our final 6 and I again think we will win our final 5 now, so fun revisit either way

Hahaha that would be interesting

The thread title and OP analysis was almost entirely the rate of frequency that Josh throws an INT, which has nothing to do with TD's. The topic of conversation very specifically is around his interceptions. I added a small piece of bonus content at the end to just see how often he scored vs throwing an interception and spot checked it against a couple greats...why, because we are talking about interceptions. I guess shame on me for staying on topic about interceptions in a thread about interceptions.

To be fair...people have been saying BB and McD (Beane too) were going to get fired for a while and yet all of them got recent extensions. I just find that what people say doesn't always align with what happens. For BB to come here both him and McD need to get fired, and while possible, still seems unlikely to me right now that both get fired this offseason.

No, read the thread title and OP. This thread is discussing the narrative around his interceptions which if you turn on a TV is what is predominantly being discussed. Again, if you or the other poster you quoted want to start your own thread to talk about a completely different topic, then feel free to do so and I will be happy to participate in it. But the thread title and OP very specifically identified the topic of this conversation. No, his interceptions and leading the NFL right now in interceptions is predominantly what is being discussed. Regardless, this thread is discussing the narrative around him being prone to interceptions and if that is accurate or not.

Love the optimism, but Bills can't win the division if they win out and are not even assured of making the playoffs if we win out. We need Miami to lose 2 of their next 5 if I am not mistaken for shot at division and we need some other teams to lose as we are currently 10th in the AFC, so we both need to win out and need some help. But I do think we will win out, and that should get us in the playoffs and I think we at least make the AFCCG if we make the playoffs. So I am with you on the optimism in general

BB signed an extension, so why do people keep bringing him up like he is even an option in the first place?

I was referring to seasons...I said worst period - as in what was Josh INT % during the period with Daboll vs the his INT % with Dorsey. And you are only furthering my point as the first 2 years Daboll had hm, Josh was raw and had very little talent or weapons around Josh. Yet Josh INT % was still significantly lower during the time with Daboll than with Dorsey. And yes, sample size is small with Brady, but you can't dismiss that mid season the offense went from 20.5 PPG against weak defenses the previous 6 games to 33 PPG against tough defenses in Brady's first 2 games with the same personnel and not having the luxury of spending a whole offseason putting his stamp on the offense (Dorsey had 2). Josh Allen since Brady took over has 710 yards and 7 TD's in 2 games against tough defenses, and one of those games was in a terrible rain storm. NIGHT & DAY difference from Dorsey, so its relevant. Again, we are discussing frequency of interceptions, has nothing to do with fumbles. Feel free to start a thread to discuss what ever you would like...but here, we are specifically talking about his interceptions and if he is really as prone to throwing Interceptions as he has made out to be. Which has nothing to do with fumbles.

Coming into the Philly game, I saw Dan Orlovsky say that Josh was tied with CJ Stroud as the 7th best in the NFL on throwing the least amount of interceptable passes, yet he still leads the NFL in INT's. So why is that...well it suggests two things...good throws by Josh that turn into INT's from a mistake by the receiver and more volume on attempts than lots of other QB's.

Under Dorsey, Allens INT % was 17% higher than under Daboll or even Brady. Technically if you don't count the hail mary INT, Allen has 1 INT on real throws in 2 games under Brady and his INT % is half what it was under Dorsey, although the sample size is way too small. But even if you count the hail mary his INT % is the same as Daboll which is much better than Dorsey. And no disrespect, but fumbles are not part of the equation when discussing his rate of throwing interceptions, which is what I was addressing here, the media's narrative around how many interceptions Josh throws.

To be fair...One word: D O R S E Y His INT % is at its worst under Dorsey. It's at his career avg of 2.4% under Brady and really its at 1.2% under Brady because one of his 2 INT's with Brady at OC was a hail mary and not off a targeted pass thrown. First of all, the meat of the stats is INT per pass thrown...has nothing to do with TD's. Second of all, running or passing, its a TD scored by the QB. It counts the same on the board, to disregard it for him or any QB is pretty absurd. Take away Hurts rushing TD's and his stats are terrible for example yet he is the MVP front runner.

Yeah you are right, not sure why one site showed 0...just double checked stat muse and Allen has 2 career lost post season fumbles. So seems correct answer is 2 actually. Thanks for pointing that out He doesn't have 56 fumble turnovers though...he has only 23 lost fumbles, those are the only ones that have been turnovers. And all the other all time greats had fumbles too I did not factor in.

The problem is to compare them to all time greats, that means their careers are over. And I included many recent greats who played in this era and Mahomes. And more importantly, to talk about his "last 8 games" without discussing the NIGHT and DAY difference between the Dorsey led offense avg 20.5 PPG for 6 of those games and the Joe Brady led offense avg 33 PPG for the other 2 is leaving out some SIGNIFICANT context. Allen already has the record for most TD in first 6 years and still has 5 more games to go to finish that 6th year. Just watch Allen cook the league these final 5 games with the OC switch. He is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and he is about to remind the world of that here down the stretch.

Correct, I did not include fumbles as the meat of the thread was addressing the media narrative that Josh in interception prone, so it was how often does he really throw interceptions. For the TD to INT rate, I did include rushing TD's for all QB's as a comparison to how often he throws an INT vs scoring a TD as this again was addressing the narrative about his interception totals being too high.

See my correction on my comment above where I misread a tweet that said 3rd, but it was talking a different ratio. So I went back and edited my comment to reflect that so you don't get wrong info.

I also believe we will run the table and reach at least the AFCCG. Mark me down with you on this. We are about to see Allen and this offense carry us at a new level down the stretch. Had the Brady switch happened sooner I believe we would have had a shot at #1 seed. But it didn't, however its happened now and I do think this team runs the table over the final 5 games.

CORRECTION: I said 3rd because I saw a stat about that on Twitter, but when I went back it wasn't the same stat. I will need to go do a check myself on the current ones, so don't want to give you bad info. After doing a quick check amongst the better QB's of Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Lamar, Tua, and Burrow. On that spot check, it went Mahomes and Hurts as top 2, then Herbert and Lamar were just above Allen, then it was Allen with Burrow slightly behind him, and Tua was far back at 2.4 to 1. So he was at 5th not 3rd before checking everyone else. But him, Lamar, Herbert, and Burrow were all pretty closely grouped. Hurts has a high INT rate compared to passing TD's, but he has so many tush push rushing TD's that it makes his TD to INT rate pretty good.

Hahaha comment of the week

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes. The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability. And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below. If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play. It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true. Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc. But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions? No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context. There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt. So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time? Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time: Aaron Rodgers 1.4% Patrick Mahomes = 1.7% Tom Brady = 1.8% Drew Brees = 2.3% Josh Allen = 2.4% Matt Stafford = 2.4% Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5% Joe Montana = 2.6% Steve Young = 2.6% Phillip Rivers = 2.6% Peyton Manning = 2.7% Cam Newton = 2.7% Dan Marino = 3.0% Troy Aikman = 3.0% John Elway = 3.1% Kurt Warner = 3.1% Randall Cunningham = 3.1% Brett Favre = 3.3% Warren Moon = 3.4% Jim Kelly = 3.7% Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's. And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football. Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great. For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve. Tom Brady: 3.2 to 1 Josh Allen: 2.9 to 1 Drew Brees: 2.4 to 1 Peyton Manning: 2.2 to 1 Brett Farve: 1.55 to 1 It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves. In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played. NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much. What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals. But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history. So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's? For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo.

I think part of the issue is that this isn't really Joe Bradys system yet. For example, Leonard Fournette said this was by far the most complicated passing system he has ever seen and would take a while to get up to speed (Dorsey was OC when he was signed). And there was many direct references to how complicated our system is where WR's often have 5 options on a route. But I have no doubt Brady is going to adjust this in future situations. IMHO Brady is crushing it so far...only 2 games...but I have been very impressed with him during games and in his interviews thus far.

It can not be on Allen though, he had to throw the ball before Davis made any break and the WR has the option to go corner or inside, so Allen has to go where he thinks Davis is going to choose based on the coverage. Doesn't really make either guy wrong, its part of the risk with a WR option when a QB is forced to throw before the break. Most plays there is more clear choice, on this one, it was pick a direction they are both easy TD's. Based on the look at the time Allen threw it, inside is where it looked like Davis "should" go. That also doesn't mean its Davis fault either, but I think the bigger issue is that next time, there needs to be a predetermined understanding of where to break on that look vs an option.