WhitewalkerInPhilly

I was jittery and nervous at the start, but I am settling in. I feel good. I will probably lay some money down. The talking heads are talking about the past. But this is brand new. The Chiefs offense hasn't been magic BS as in years past. Their D is good (not underestimating them) but the data shows that they do so well when they use the crowd noise in Arrowhead combined with aggressive blitzes from Spags. Now, the crowd noise is on the other side with Mahomes using lesser receivers and Brady has dusted off a bunch of blitz beaters to counter what everyone started throwing after the Chiefs game. It's not easy. My heart will be hammering all game. But this time, the Bills are the more talented team playing in their house. And Mahommes has never tasted Bills Mafia on the road in his career. I think this is the year we do it.

Cthulu goes "awww sheisse, I ain't eating anything rotten"

I would not hate that. Bills Mafia, and I say this lovingly as part of them, is F******* weird man. I love us for that. Black magic cthonian ritual for a Super Bowl? Sign me up! It says "Come to our house. We call it the Pit. Imagine what you'll call it. We are going to drag you through mud and wind and snow and then lay you on a table for our fans to smash"

I thoroughly expect Beane to take a WR in Round 1 or 2 and be willing to burn some resources to move up. No other position of need we have will cost as much money to fill in free agency. What else needs filling that can't be done after the the FA flurry subsides? Safety to replace Hyde and/or Poyer? They were journeymen when they signed here, we can probably do something similar as a stopgap. Center to replace Morse if we think Bates isn't good enough? We are locked into the money on Von and Groot is set at DE. Oliver is killing it as 1 tech, and you can get gap plugger 3 tech at reasonable rates (Ford, Phillips, I expect to get DaQauan back coming off injury). Bernard has been killing it at LB and he and Milano are looking like a stud combo. WR2 is where stupid money gets spent/

Yes. MVS and Rice can be problems, but you know Kelce is a problem

I had not heard of The Pit until Monday night and now I am ready to start a cult about it. Also, the memes are perfect Ok now I get to feel OOOOOLLLD. I remember when ebaumsworld was edgy and Anonymous was out to get you. Now they are just Qtards

I think part of that is that neither of those players have been reliably good this year. That's to be expected to an expect from Sherfield, but Davis has clearly been in a down year. The Bills have been doing a lot of option routes in their scheme, which means that instead of relying on split second timing the WR and QB are expected to read defenses. For whatever reason, Josh and Gabe have just not been on the same page this year. We've seen that trust level repeatedly with Diggs, and building with Kincaid and Shakir but it seems to have regressed with Gabe and he hasn't had the time with Sherfield and I think that's hurting some of the passing game. Bills need a new WR 2 this offseason.

Whooo! This is great news for the NFC East

I know I made a joke a little ways up, but I do think that the Bills should take a look at axed outgoing staff. Brady was a Rhule scapegoat after all and we do need to get assistants into the pipeline. I wouldn't turn up any solid QB coach or DCs. I think McDermott has done a decent job calling the defense but I think he could use an assistant to delegate to.

Beane asleep at the wheel! /s

The guys on Cover One had Aaron Schatz (the guy who invented DVOA) on to talk about this. For reference, I believe this was the guy who called Josh Allen "a parody of a QB prospect". His response was that, based on that data and trends, almost no prospect improves on accuracy going from college to the pros. And for the most part, all other physical gifted but inaccurate talents have washed out (Manuel, Bortles, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins) and Josh is the once in a great while exception (who got time, coaching and a supporting cast) to develop out. And now that he has, the data supports how great he is.

Analytics is a tool. Like all tools, it can be useful in some situations and should not be relied upon for all of them. It can inform decisions, it should not be plugged in blindly.

What I'll say is different (and what I hope is the difference maker) is that since then we have seen Brady roll out blitz beaters. I am sure there are more than this, but what stands out to me are these: Cook TD after the Cover 0 blitz I can't find a link, but Kincaid had a great reel in on a 3rd and short vs Miami A bunch of examples from Baldinger from the Steelers game

He would need to be in Stage 3 or 4 to be able to participate in team practices. For reference, Ty Johnson was limited all of last week and was good to go Monday

Breaking news, Nick Wright is Chiefs homer and has been virulently anti-Josh Allen and Buffalo Bills! Sources indicate that this has been going on for...Josh's and Mahomes' entire careers? I care about seeing him suffer! It is joy to me!

Let's ask the Pixies

I know I was in a bit of freakout mode yesterday but I am calming down a bit. I noticed through the season some of the things that you pointed out when it came to "struggling Bills" narratives vs the "elite" Chiefs but you are putting them all together. Like you said, "Mr. Turnover" Josh Allen and "GOAT" Mahomes have very close splits this year in TD/INT: 29/18 for Josh and 27/14 for Mahomes (disregarding Allen's 15 rushing touchdowns) The Chief's elite D is 2nd is points allowed...and the Bills are 4th. The Bills allow 10 more yards per game. Bills are 6th in Points per game scores while the Chiefs are 15th. 5th in rushing while the Chiefs are 18th, but we should worry about being outmuscled by the Chiefs. The Bills struggled against inferior opponents after the Cowboys, barely beating the Chargers and Patriots and Dolphins while the Chiefs...lost to the Packers, lost the Bills and lost to the Raiders while not looking like world beaters vs the eliminated Pats and Bengals. Plus, as people have pointed out: Allen and the Bills went through their gauntlet and gelled. The Chiefs defense, impressive as it is, drops in effectiveness when they don't have the record sound at Arrowhead drowning out play calls. Out of those 3-3 splits (but 0-2 in the playoffs!) media heads have been harping on 5 out of 6 were in Arrowhead. The one game in Buffalo was in October 2020, (someone correct me if I am wrong) a brisk clear day in an empty stadium with no fans. Mahomes has never played at Highmark with Bills fans allowed in. Mahomes has never played a road AFC playoff game with a hostile crowd. This is a sold out playoff game where Bills Mafia is going to be out of its mind. Now, it's far from a sure thing, but the more I see the more I am settling down.

If the Bills win on Sunday the Schadenfreude will be near ecstasy for me.

I mean a little, but I am not going to worry until Thursday's report. Some of the scuttlebut has been that Spector and Benford's injury are pain management, so there is zero point is putting more tread on the tires than needed. Douglas and Dodson are starting, I expect them back at full by the end of the week. Johnson being allowed limited work means he's making his way through concussion protocol I don't love Haack, but I am not going to lose sleep over a punter Floyd and Von taking rest days is standard protocol at this point Rapp and Davis being out isn't good, but if I am putting the 11 best players out on each side of the field neither of them make my list. Bernard...I think you're right but I'll keep hope. If Spector and Dodson are good to go they've been surprisingly resilient.

Logic has been one of the most reasoned posters in the last few years. I think he's just having some fun. Though for real, imagine if we could go back to the run up for Week One and told this board "Hey, you are all are going to be desperate for Terrell Bernard to be ready to play in the playoffs" I would have thought me was out of his mind! (I might be, just not for that reason)

I thought so, and from what little I was able to google if it's non-surgical until the offseason then no new news is likely good news. Thanks!

I agree with you. On a pure talent perspective there is no doubt that he's better than Harty or Sherfield who are fringers. I might be dubious about Davis as a #2, but he was still a useful component. My issue, like you said, is the negative plays. I think Option Routes are the logical choice for Josh's playstyle. He's never going to be a Brady-esque "diagnose at the line, timing route" QB and I would never try to force that. But that means your QB trusting his WRs to see the field the way he does and anticipating. It means chemistry and field awareness. Diggs has this. I've seen signs of this from Kincaid this year. Gabe, for whatever reason, hasn't had it this year. The point I go back to was the KC game where the potential game winning pass hits the ground. Josh could have thrown that better. It could be a simple miscommunication. But the moment that the ball was snapped it was obvious that the defense was doing a Cover 0 blitz. Gabe needs to know on that route that if he gets off the line untouched he is supposed to turn and look so Allen knows where to deliver it other than guesswork. Even if Allen has it in the air, it is a high arc and Davis has time to still make a play on it. Davis did neither. And that for me is enough to mean that I can't trust him on option routes which really limits his usability in our scheme. I wish him well, but we need better. /end rant

I appreciate the inside source, even if I am ambivalent about the outcome. Just knowing means we have a guess at what we are going to see. Any changes to Benford? Last I remember it was a meniscus but he didn't practice today.

But the game only lasts four hours max! Where will be find the time?

Ok that sounds like what I found. I don't think we will know more until it's full go or no go time