WhitewalkerInPhilly

The guys on Cover One had Aaron Schatz (the guy who invented DVOA) on to talk about this. For reference, I believe this was the guy who called Josh Allen "a parody of a QB prospect". His response was that, based on that data and trends, almost no prospect improves on accuracy going from college to the pros. And for the most part, all other physical gifted but inaccurate talents have washed out (Manuel, Bortles, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins) and Josh is the once in a great while exception (who got time, coaching and a supporting cast) to develop out. And now that he has, the data supports how great he is.

Analytics is a tool. Like all tools, it can be useful in some situations and should not be relied upon for all of them. It can inform decisions, it should not be plugged in blindly.

What I'll say is different (and what I hope is the difference maker) is that since then we have seen Brady roll out blitz beaters. I am sure there are more than this, but what stands out to me are these: Cook TD after the Cover 0 blitz I can't find a link, but Kincaid had a great reel in on a 3rd and short vs Miami A bunch of examples from Baldinger from the Steelers game

He would need to be in Stage 3 or 4 to be able to participate in team practices. For reference, Ty Johnson was limited all of last week and was good to go Monday

Breaking news, Nick Wright is Chiefs homer and has been virulently anti-Josh Allen and Buffalo Bills! Sources indicate that this has been going on for...Josh's and Mahomes' entire careers? I care about seeing him suffer! It is joy to me!

Let's ask the Pixies

I know I was in a bit of freakout mode yesterday but I am calming down a bit. I noticed through the season some of the things that you pointed out when it came to "struggling Bills" narratives vs the "elite" Chiefs but you are putting them all together. Like you said, "Mr. Turnover" Josh Allen and "GOAT" Mahomes have very close splits this year in TD/INT: 29/18 for Josh and 27/14 for Mahomes (disregarding Allen's 15 rushing touchdowns) The Chief's elite D is 2nd is points allowed...and the Bills are 4th. The Bills allow 10 more yards per game. Bills are 6th in Points per game scores while the Chiefs are 15th. 5th in rushing while the Chiefs are 18th, but we should worry about being outmuscled by the Chiefs. The Bills struggled against inferior opponents after the Cowboys, barely beating the Chargers and Patriots and Dolphins while the Chiefs...lost to the Packers, lost the Bills and lost to the Raiders while not looking like world beaters vs the eliminated Pats and Bengals. Plus, as people have pointed out: Allen and the Bills went through their gauntlet and gelled. The Chiefs defense, impressive as it is, drops in effectiveness when they don't have the record sound at Arrowhead drowning out play calls. Out of those 3-3 splits (but 0-2 in the playoffs!) media heads have been harping on 5 out of 6 were in Arrowhead. The one game in Buffalo was in October 2020, (someone correct me if I am wrong) a brisk clear day in an empty stadium with no fans. Mahomes has never played at Highmark with Bills fans allowed in. Mahomes has never played a road AFC playoff game with a hostile crowd. This is a sold out playoff game where Bills Mafia is going to be out of its mind. Now, it's far from a sure thing, but the more I see the more I am settling down.

If the Bills win on Sunday the Schadenfreude will be near ecstasy for me.

I mean a little, but I am not going to worry until Thursday's report. Some of the scuttlebut has been that Spector and Benford's injury are pain management, so there is zero point is putting more tread on the tires than needed. Douglas and Dodson are starting, I expect them back at full by the end of the week. Johnson being allowed limited work means he's making his way through concussion protocol I don't love Haack, but I am not going to lose sleep over a punter Floyd and Von taking rest days is standard protocol at this point Rapp and Davis being out isn't good, but if I am putting the 11 best players out on each side of the field neither of them make my list. Bernard...I think you're right but I'll keep hope. If Spector and Dodson are good to go they've been surprisingly resilient.

Logic has been one of the most reasoned posters in the last few years. I think he's just having some fun. Though for real, imagine if we could go back to the run up for Week One and told this board "Hey, you are all are going to be desperate for Terrell Bernard to be ready to play in the playoffs" I would have thought me was out of his mind! (I might be, just not for that reason)

I thought so, and from what little I was able to google if it's non-surgical until the offseason then no new news is likely good news. Thanks!

I agree with you. On a pure talent perspective there is no doubt that he's better than Harty or Sherfield who are fringers. I might be dubious about Davis as a #2, but he was still a useful component. My issue, like you said, is the negative plays. I think Option Routes are the logical choice for Josh's playstyle. He's never going to be a Brady-esque "diagnose at the line, timing route" QB and I would never try to force that. But that means your QB trusting his WRs to see the field the way he does and anticipating. It means chemistry and field awareness. Diggs has this. I've seen signs of this from Kincaid this year. Gabe, for whatever reason, hasn't had it this year. The point I go back to was the KC game where the potential game winning pass hits the ground. Josh could have thrown that better. It could be a simple miscommunication. But the moment that the ball was snapped it was obvious that the defense was doing a Cover 0 blitz. Gabe needs to know on that route that if he gets off the line untouched he is supposed to turn and look so Allen knows where to deliver it other than guesswork. Even if Allen has it in the air, it is a high arc and Davis has time to still make a play on it. Davis did neither. And that for me is enough to mean that I can't trust him on option routes which really limits his usability in our scheme. I wish him well, but we need better. /end rant

I appreciate the inside source, even if I am ambivalent about the outcome. Just knowing means we have a guess at what we are going to see. Any changes to Benford? Last I remember it was a meniscus but he didn't practice today.

But the game only lasts four hours max! Where will be find the time?

Ok that sounds like what I found. I don't think we will know more until it's full go or no go time

"Hey Von, how's the knee, it looks like you took a bad hit at practice today" "What are you talking about?" "Look, either it's the easy way or we Kerrigan you"

In another thread someone I saw someone mention that the Raiders ran a lot of 5-2-4 at the Chiefs. At the time I thought "oh, that's a odd combo but out LB and CB core is so good that I don't think it applies" Now? Maybe it's worth a spin.

Right up until the point where he made a very specific and disprovable statement that could been seen a defamatory. If that can get Fox News to fire anchors, it might be more trouble than it's worth.

I had forgotten about Phillips! It's good to see Dodson and Douglas back at full and Johnson limited (working his way through protocol). Let's see what the report looks like tomorrow for these guys sitting. There has been speculation that Benford and Spector were pain management issues, so sitting them for a day isn't crazy.

People who know more than me is that stage 3 or 4?

I think it's a bit of a changing of the guard. Sports journalism has been gatekept for a while (how long did we have Sully?) and those who made their bones in the early 2000s are finding out that the internet has utterly scattered the viewing audience and have yet to accept it. My biggest beef with MacAfree at the moment is his long running commitment to Aaron Rodgers when the man has gone Coocoo of Coco Puffs

His schtick isn't my thing, but I have to give him credit for making a model for those contributors who I like who are just educated fans (Grossi, Perna, UT, Cover One) and hearing the old broadcaster guys go "tsk tsk tsk how uncouth" shows me they don't understand where the market is headed.

Pretty much The line I keep hearing is "Josh never beat Patrick in the playoffs" and I keep thinking "ok, but for your sample size you are picking 2 out of 6 of the last four years". Also of note: 5 out of 6 have been in Arrowhead. by that logic the Bills are 0-1 against the Chiefs at home...because they played in 2020 when the Chiefs were objectively better.

I don't know if this is the right thread, but yes, that has been the jist of our response. Unless you are willing to judge anything other than a dead run as a fake slide that sounds impossible to consistently enforce. People have pointed out the Mahomes fakes going out of bounds a few times. Of course, the easy solution is to just get rid of the slide rule or show a lot more leniency (treat it like any other hit after the whistle) but the league will never do that.

Psssh, Josh can be an entirely secondary. That's why he's the quarterback! He can be five nickel backs!