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JujuFish

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  1. If you're down 14 late, it makes mathematical sense. 2 pointers are successful about 47.5% of the time. 1 pointers 95%. If you score a TD and go for 2: 47.5% of the time, you'll have 8 points. Now a TD+PAT (95%) will win the game. 52.5% of the time, you'll have 6 points. Now a TD+2pt (47.5%) will tie the game. Calculating out: Make XP on first TD: 14 points: (95*.95) 90.25% 13 points: (.95*.05) 4.75% Miss XP and forced to go for 2 on second TD: 14 points (.05*.475) 2.375% 12 points (.05*.525) 2.625% Tie game: 92.625% Lost game: 7.275% Make 2PT on first TD and therefore kick PAT for the win: 15 points: (.475*.95) 45.125% 14 points: (.475*.05) 2.375% Miss 2PT and go for 2 on second TD to tie: 14 points: (.525 * .475) 24.9375% 12 points: (.525 * .525) 27.5625% Won game: 45.125% Tie game: 27.3125% Lost game: 27.5625% Going for PATs will at best tie the game for you. Going for 2 gives you a greater than 45% chance to outright win and greater than 72% chance to do no worse than kicking PATs. Is a ~45% chance to win worth risking an extra ~20% chance to lose? Yes, yes it is.
  2. If overthecap.com is right, his dad made almost that exact amount through his first 9 seasons ($35,304,765). He added another $31.6 million in his final 4 seasons.
  3. If the Browns win, then KC for sure. That'll send Cleveland to Baltimore for what might be the best game of the playoffs and will take out at least one of the two (IMO) biggest threats to Buffalo out of the conference. Otherwise? Who cares. Just win.
  4. I didn't argue that he didn't play his first season. In fact, my numbers include every single game he played in his first season, just like they do Allen's. Removing Allen's games doesn't make anything sense. Try again.
  5. Mahomes after 80 games: 204. Allen after 80 games: 182 Mahomes after 88 games: 219. Allen after 88 games: 206 Mahomes in games 81-88: 15. Allen in games 81-88: 24 I have no idea what point you're trying to make. By the end of the season, Allen will have played, barring injury, 14 more games than Mahomes in his first six seasons. And why would you take away Allen's first X games? What's the argument there?
  6. I agree. 34 points to Cinci's 17.
  7. Ackshually *pushes glasses back up on nose* Belichick is 3-7 in such cases. 0-1 with the Browns, 1-1 in 2000 before Brady took over, 2-0 when Brady was out for the 2008 season, 0-1 when Brady was suspended in 2016, and 0-4 since Brady left.
  8. Oh, we're definitely paying him. Allen is making $47 million for the 2022 season. Thanks to salary cap voodoo, his cap hit will be under $17 million.
  9. Can't address the argument, can only try to put words in my mouth. Yes, that's what a child does who can't support their side.
  10. I'm not holding a gun to your head and shoving the vaccine in your arm, therefore I already care about bodily autonomy. Try again, child.
  11. Myocarditis has a significantly lower incidence rate in the vaccine than from COVID. And it's temporary. COVID kills. Grow up.
  12. I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress. That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.
  13. Maybe he grew up during those years where the best player on the team was Brian Moorman.
  14. Good thing timeouts are only good for stopping the clock and not, you know, preparing a play properly.
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