Coach55

If the Bills are smart and are trying to put together the best roster, they should rethink the whole offense this year putting both Knox and Kincaid on the field for 75%+ of the plays (think 2006 Patriots with Hernandez and Gronk). If such is the case, I would make a strong argument that the Bills should keep Zach Davidson as a 4th tight end on the active roster (5th if you include Gilliam). If you do this, it reduces the WR roster to 5 making MVS the odd man out. Not sure if Brady is that forward thinking, but personally, I would rather have a 6'7" tight end who catches everything thrown at him as opposed to a speedster that never lived up to his potential and has a notorious drop problem (who in this case has also been injured practically all of pre-season). Thoughts?

McDermott has to win out at this point to save his job IMO. No playoffs, no job. With that being said, Trent Sherfield should be cut immediately - he clearly didn't know his plays. Everytime he stepped on the field he was useless. Gabe Davis is getting a lot of blame on the last play, which we don't know if he deserves - this could have easily been Josh's fault. We left 13 points off the board. This should have been a route. James Cook dropped a sure touchdown on the second drive and Tyler Bass missing 2 field goals (the block is his fault, he didn't get it high enough). The refs had the fix on from the beginning. The amount of calls/non-calls were ridiculous. You can't even quantify the amount. There were so many obvious ones - even Romo consistently commented. The worse thing is they weren't even close: - Ticky tack Defensive Holding on Douglas - Dion Dawkins questionable holding penalty to offset Philly's obvious DPI - Sherfield obvious DPI no call - Diggs obvious DPI no call - the Horse Collar/IG call - The McGovern invisible hold negating Johnson's 16 yard run - The obvious block in the back on Siran Neal on the 4th quarter punt - philly got the ball on the 32 and should have had it at the 7.

Got a 136 for my first time playing... Didn't realize the concept right away and picked Stefon Diggs for 80%. I wish I could redo that slot: Nat Dorsey for Browns/Vikings was .01% Vance Walker for Raiders/Falcons was .02% Michael Bennett for Raiders/Vikings was .2% Andy Levitre for Bills/Falcons for 2% Shocked Drew Bledsoe only 4% for 3000 yd passers

Contingency plan on Micah Hyde's return?

Butch Rolle's 87-91 seasons. 9 receptions for 9 consecutive TDs and 21 yards over 5 seasons. Not sure anyone is beating that.

We have one of if not the best wide receiver in the league, a top 10 tight end and one of the better deep threats in the league. Plus we had two solid running backs who combined to average 5 yards a carry. Honestly the combined ability of our skill positions are better than either Kansas City or Cincinnati. I just hope we can keep some resemblance of this team for next year with our cap issues. We lost because of coaching not because of talent.

First of all, RB is not a problem on this roster. It may be next year if we don't sign Singletary back. The reality is that our offense is not a run focused offense, thus, our running backs don't produce numbers. Devin Singletary averages 4.7 yards/carry over the course of his career (4.6 for this year). That puts him in the likes of Dalvin Cook and Tiki Barber and ahead of Christian McCaffrey, Adrian Peterson and Josh Jacobs. The Bills just don't focus on the run. If they decided to feature Singletary, he would put up phenomenal numbers. He doesn't have the breakaway speed of Dalvin Cook (or even James for that matter), but he rarely has negative plays and has unbelievable vision in finding the holes. The harsh reality is going to be the following - look for Singletary to be a Giant next year and put up a career year. The Bills are going to focus on James Cook and deal with the rest of their salary cap mess, making Singletary a cap casualty. Barkley is great, but I can't imagine the Giants resigning him at the price tag he commands. Daboll knows Singletary and what he is capable of. He will have a breakout season, just not in Buffalo.

Power rankings thru 10: 1. BUF 2. PHI 3. BAL 4. KC 5. CIN 6. DAL 7. MIN (+1) 8. NYJ (-1) 9. MIA (+1) 10. NE (-1) Point of note - last weeks picks came in 9-4 vs. spread per my previous post, however, I realized I had the ARZ/SEA score inverted in the system. This would have thrown out the TB/SEA game and CHI/DET game. Thus, removing those 2 games for the correction would have made the predictive record 8-3 for the week. Thus through 5 weeks, the system is now 36-23 (61%) This weeks picks w/ Vegas Spreads - TEN (+3), NO (-3.5), BUF (-9.5), PHI (-7.5), NYJ (+3.5), NYG (-3.0), BAL (-12.5), CHI (+3), DEN (-2.5), MIN (+1.5), ARZ (+8). Pick of the weeks are 2-4. This week's pick is ARZ (+8).

Quick update - I missed posting a few weeks. This damn work thing gets in the way. Current rankings through week 9: 1. BUF 2. PHL 3. BAL (+1) 4. KC (-1) 5. CIN (+1) 6. DAL (-1) 7. NYJ (+1) 8. MIN (-1) 9. NE (+2) 10. MIA Predictive index results so far (vs the spread): Wk 6 - 8-6 Wk 7 - 5-6 Wk 8 - 6-6 Wk 9 - 9-2 (note both losses were pushes) Running Total - 28-20 This weeks picks w/ Vegas Spreads - CAR (+3), TB (-2.5), KC (-9.5), NYG (-6.5), PIT (+2.5), CHI (-3), MIA (-4), BUF (-6.5), TEN (-3), IND (+6.5), ARZ (+3), SF (-7), PHI (-10.5). Note my pick of the weeks are 1-3. This week I have 2 - PIT and PHI. [These model to the highest discrepancy against Vegas odds]

Week 6 results are in. My predictive calculator went 8-6 against the spread (8-5 if you throw out Miami, which I mentioned would be inaccurate given the QB situation). 1-0 with my pick of the week. Updated top 10 power rankings: 1. Buffalo (0) 2. Philadelphia (+2) 3. Baltimore (-1) 4. Cincinnati (-1) 5. Kansas City (0) 6. NY Jets (+5) 7. New England (+5) 8. Dallas (0) 9. Tampa Bay (+1) 10. Miami (-4) This weeks predictions (in order of quality): Bal (Pick of the week), NYJ, Was, Cin, NE, Dal, Jax, Ten, SF, Hou, LAC The other 3 games I am not providing a pick as my predictive calculator is within 1/2 point of the spread.

I realize that the sample size is small as currently each team only has 5 games, however, the database currently has 80 games. By week 10, we will be double that. Although not deemed statistically significant, it should provide enough data to generate relatively meaningful statistics. I would say that anything less than 5 games would not have much accuracy. From games 6-10, I would expect it to improve and then once it hits 10, it will probably level off (but this is just an educated guess). Unfortunately given the roster churn in the offseason, using prior year's data doesn't really help either. This is just more of a fun experiment. That is a great idea. If I get the time, I will see how well it works. May be a few weeks.

If you saw my previous post about the Eagles soft schedule, I was frustrated with the scheduling disparity of teams and determined looking at a team's record is a flawed way of approaching how good a team is. Therefore I built a model in an attempt to determine how good teams are based on how well they play their opponents - entirely dictated based on the scores of the games. The basic thought process is if BUF beats NE by 7 and NE beats MIA by 3, then BUF should beat MIA by 10. Thus a 1 point loss to a really good team could be worth more than a 10 point win against a garbage team. By applying that process to EVERY game played for the season it creates a ranking of teams as well as a predictive index of how much a team should win by if they play another team. As more games are played, the statistics should become more accurate. A few notes on my calculations - the home team gets an automatic 3 points for playing at home and score differentials are capped at 21 (thus Buffalo beating Pittsburgh 38-3 is equivalent to Buffalo winning 24-3). The model is all indexed by the worst team in the league, who is given an index score of 50 (who is currently Carolina). Note that the index numbers don't adjust for injuries, it is entirely statistical Based on this Predictive Index, the top 10 teams in the NFL are as follows: Buffalo 74.46 Baltimore 69.68 Cincinnati 67.87 Philadelphia 66.38 Kansas City 65.08 Miami 64.84 San Fran 63.04 Dallas 62.65 Jacksonville 62.62 Tampa Bay 62.56 Thus - if the Bills are to play KC this week in KC, I would expect the Bills to Beat KC by 6.5 (74.46 - 65.08 = 9.39 - 3 for being on the road = 6.39, rounded to 6.5). The current spread is KC +3, so I would be taking the Bills this week. In order to test this out, below for this week are my picks based on the model vs. the spread, along with my expected margin of victory. CHI -6, ATL +4.5, NE 0, NYJ 0, JAX -4, MIA -9, CIN -12, BAL -8.5, PIT +1.5, CAR +7.5, SEA +1, BUF -6.5, PHI -6.5, LAC -7 As this doesn't account for injuries, Miami showing a big skew. My bet of the week is Cincinnati big (by 12) over New Orleans, who is favored by 2. Let's see how this plays out.

This was not a bash the Eagles thread. They are a good team. The point of my post is that if you don't play anybody that is any good, how can you determine how good you are. Come the end of the season, they have a schedule that could allow them to post one of the best records in NFL history (15 or 16 wins is not inconceivable). But until they play a real opponent, it could all be smoke and mirrors. The Bills had a nasty lead in to their season and if they hit the bye 5-1, I consider it a massive telling of how good this team is. After Green Bay, the toughest game on paper is going to Cincinnati (who everyone seems to have written off already this year). I would argue that the 3 if not the 4 best teams (actual best teams not based on their current record) in the NFL are in the AFC and overall the AFC is materially better than the NFC.

Nothing against the Eagles and how good they are, but it is quite possible for them to win 14+ games this season and not actually play a real super bowl contender. When the chips all fall, by the end of the season, they will play maybe 4-5 winning teams, none of which I would call upper echelon teams (maybe Green Bay - and even that is questionable now). To boot, the only tough road game they have is Dallas. In ranking the teams (Tier 1 - real contenders, Tier 2 - 1st round exit playoff team, Tier 3 - back into the playoffs if they are lucky, Tier 4 - 6-8 win teams, Tier 5 - please help them). It is crazy how easy they have it. When all is said and done, they may have the easiest schedule in the league. Tier 5 games (6): @ Lions (win) @/vs Commanders (win) vs. Steelers @ Texans @ Bears Tier 4 games (3): @ Colts vs. Jags (win) vs. Saints Tier 3 games (4): @/vs Giants vs Vikings (win) @ Cardinals (win) Tier 2 games (4): @/vs Dallas (the only reason they are here, is they too have a joke of a schedule) vs. Packers vs Titans The disparity between the NFC and the AFC is a joke. Everyone of the following teams are better than any opponent Philadelphia plays this season: AFC Teams: Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens NFC Teams: San Francisco, Tampa Bay My prediction is they walk through their schedule, get the first round bye and get bounced at home when they actually play a real team.

I am all in for Fitz. He is the perfect backup. Very mobile, will be able to pick up the offense quickly, huge fan favorite and since he is coming off a major injury, if he still wants to play he will finally be accepting of a backup role. If Josh gets hurt for 3-4 games, I want a saavy vet who will win at least half, not Jeff Tuel or Billy Joe Hobert. Fitz is our guy.