San Jose Bills Fan

Yep. Tannehill's guaranteed money was $7.653 million. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7417/ryan-tannehill (under View Contract Details) Very small investment of money.

I bet a lot of us would say that it's because we've seen all Fitz has to offer and based on some glimpses of Kolb both in Philly and in Arizona that we think/hope that he can be better than Fitz. Yes some of us are being hopeful but Kolb's sample size, while small, has provided us with some hope. He's had some moments under trying circumstances.

I've watched most of the video available on Matt Scott which unfortunately isn't much. He didn't become a starter until 2012 for one thing. And the website I rely upon for video packages only did three of his games: a thrilling overtime loss at Stanford in week 6, a home upset over 10th ranked USC in week 8, and his bowl victory against Nevada (Kaepernick's old team). All three games were shootouts. http://draftbreakdown.com/players/matt-scott In all three games Scott had very little time to throw and was under constant pressure. Here's what I like about Matt Scott: He is a great athlete. Quick-twitch, explosive, quick, fast, strong in spite of not having a thick build. His frame looks like it will easily support 10-15 more pounds so size is not an issue with him. Like most quarterbacks in this year's class (except for Manuel, Glennon, Bray, and Jones), he stands between 6'2" and 6'3". Scott has a great release and delivery. He snaps throws quickly but smoothly. There's zero hitch or windup. This kid has all the athletic ability to become an elite quarterback. What concerns me: The kid is VERY RAW. He played in the infamous Rich Rodriguez spread scheme. Not once did I see him take a snap from under center. All shotgun. This is less of an issue than it used to be but it's still an issue. On a curious note, I noticed that on a solid 65% of his throws that he throws to the right side of the field. I found this quite odd. It also seems like he doesn't make more than two reads on any given play. Scott doesn't throw to spots as much as he throws to receivers. Almost all of his throws were to receivers who had already made their breaks. On these plays the receiver had either come out of break and stopped or had re-directed to an established line, making his throws easy to judge. It will be a big adjustment for him to play in a system where he'll have to anticipate the routes and throw to spots. He has occasional trouble with accuracy, particularly on his vertical downfield throws. This is not due to arm strength which he has plenty of. It's due I think to footwork. I believe that most of his footwork problems could be attributed to being under constant pressure. In the game against Nevada, he missed 4 deep vertical throws, mostly because his feet weren't properly set. Like I said he was being pressured quite a bit in all three of these games. Anyways, this kid is a diamond in the rough. He has tons of upside. But he'll need to make significant adjustments to his game and I think those adjustments will take time. He's a project IMO and I think the highest he'll go is mid 3rd round.

Thanks Cat. The worry I have about his arm strength is that Barkley is so well coached and so polished and has developed every aspect of his game. He's attended QB academies dating back to high school. In that context, why is his arm strength underdeveloped? Is it possible that he's already maxed it out? And of course arm strength and feet per second and hundredths of seconds do make a difference on a handful of plays each game/season/career. I believe for some QBs that it is the difference between varying degrees of success and/or failure.

Cash, I didn't say it was common or relevant. Just giving an example. And the Dallas example was even more extreme in that the two first rounders the Cowboys burnt for Walsh and Aikman happened months apart, not one year apart. Anyways it would be unusual for it to happen in consecutive years. But with QBing more valued than ever before, I think it will become more, not less common. Look at the situation in Cleveland with Brandon Weeden. Marginally successful rookie season followed by a regime change. In Jacksonville, Gabbert has been a big disappointment. His selection also has been followed by an ownership change and two coaching changes. In Minnesota, Christian Ponder has been disappointing as has Jake Locker in Tennessee. These guys are already 2 years removed from being drafted but it should surprise no one if their teams invested a high draft pick in another quarterback. It created shockwaves in Cincinnati this week when it became known that the Bengals worked out EJ Manuel. What does that mean about how the Bengals really feel about Andy Dalton? Or does it say a lot about EJ Manuel? Anyways, while it has been rare in the past, I think you'll see it more common (not common but more common) in the future that a team drafts a quarterback in the first round and upon a year's reflection, dips into the well again 12 months later.

I can only comment on Matt Barkley. I studied all his video from his outstanding 2011 season which consisted of watching 11 games. That means I watched 11 games of Matt Barkley's best season. I chose not to watch 2012 though I probably will at some point. Barkley IS by far the most pro-ready QB in the draft. He is extremely polished. He is smart and tough. He gets the ball out on time, throws to spots, has excellent accuracy and great ball placement for his receivers. He's almost the complete package. But I'm scared to death of his arm strength. Even in 2011 when he was healthy I would say that his arm strength was at best, below average for an NFL quarterback. There are QBs out there who put up a few good seasons but ultimately failed as NFL starters (ie-Matt Cassel) simply due to weak arms. Barkley's arm is weak. There's no sugar coating it. Surprisingly I've actually seen him get the ball 58 yards in the air on deep balls but his intermediate throws have zero velocity. Zero as in zero. There's another thing that really scares me about Barkley. It jumped out at me while watching these 11 games and I'll let the website describe it: The system itself is a bit of a paradox – as stated, he has autonomy to get himself into the best plays and situations based on what the defense is giving him. On the other hand, the offense gives him a lot of easy, unchallenging throws that pad his stats and keep the offense on schedule and in manageable situations (over 50% of his throws occur no further than 5 yards downfield, with almost a quarter being passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage). My words: He is a dink and dunk quarterback who consistently failed to stretch the defense. I believe this is what hurt his 2012 season. I don't put much stock in website scouting reports but if I notice something on video that I see discussed in a scouting report, well obviously it carries more weight for me. http://draftbreakdow...rs/matt-barkley

I haven't done enough study to go as deep as you guys are going at this point. So I can only comment on Matt Barkley. I studied all his video from his outstanding 2011 season which consisted of watching 11 games. That means I watched 11 games of Matt Barkley's best season. I chose not to watch 2012 though I probably will at some point. Barkley IS by far the most pro-ready QB in the draft. He is extremely polished. He is smart and tough. He gets the ball out on time, throws to spots, has excellent accuracy and great ball placement for his receivers. He's almost the complete package. But I'm scared to death of his arm strength. Even in 2011 when he was healthy I would say that his arm strength was at best, below average for an NFL quarterback. There are QBs out there who put up a few good seasons but ultimately failed as NFL starters (ie-Matt Cassel) simply due to weak arms. Barkley's arm is weak. There's no sugar coating it. I've actually seen him get the ball 58 yards in the air on deep balls but his intermediate throws have zero velocity. There's another thing that really scares me about Barkley. It jumped out at me while watching these 11 games and I'll let the website describe it: The system itself is a bit of a paradox – as stated, he has autonomy to get himself into the best plays and situations based on what the defense is giving him. On the other hand, the offense gives him a lot of easy, unchallenging throws that pad his stats and keep the offense on schedule and in manageable situations (over 50% of his throws occur no further than 5 yards downfield, with almost a quarter being passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage). My words: He is a dink and dunk quarterback who consistently failed to stretch the defense. I believe this is what hurt his 2012 season. I don't put much stock in website scouting reports but if I notice something on video that I see discussed in a scouting report, well obviously it carries more weight for me. http://draftbreakdown.com/players/matt-barkley I guess I'll re-post this in the Barkley thread.

As far as I'm concerned, the whole Kevin Kolb issue ultimately revolves around whether the Bills draft a QB in the first round this year.

Great post! I agree with your analysis. Personally I believe that EJ Manuel is the best QB in this class by far and has a huge upside. I hope that he is the pick. But I could see where O-line or defense impact player would be as likely if not more likely. After Manuel, I've been saying that I'd like the Bills to go for an impact defender. Mingo did not put up huge numbers but every time I see him on videotape he's putting pressure on and the quarterback is looking to get rid of the ball. I don't think his sack numbers reflect his true impact on the game and I'd bet his pressures numbers are really good. Mingo had what was considered a disappointing season but he has Von Miller-type talent and he'll be more effective as an OLB in the NFL as opposed to being a DE as he was at LSU. BTW I said the same thing last year about Bruce Irvin who was used as a undersized DE at West Virginia. I'm actually very disappointed that Seattle has kept him at DE as his 3-cone, short and long shuttle times were historically elite. In other words Irvin has the movement skills to be a All Pro linebacker so I'm surprised Seattle keeps him as a 245 pound DE. But I digress. BTW, I watched one game of Sharrif Floyd to see what all the noise was about and came away very unimpressed. I can't remember who he played against but regardless of whether he's better than I think or not, I've come to a theory about DTs high in the draft. After seeing Marcel Dareus, Gerald McCoy, Glenn Dorsey and numerous other top 5 DTs have a very minimal effect, I've come to the belief that drafting a DT is analogous to drafting a guard. It's simply a low impact position. In fact even Suh who is one of the best in the game has much less of an impact on a game that a premier pass rusher. And of course Ngata is a great player as is Wilfork but those guys were picked 12th and 21st overall. So I would be against drafting a guy like Floyd or Lotulelei at #8. I really buy into Edward's Arm's regression analysis view of the importance of the passing game so I would go QB, pass rusher, and then offensive tackle. I acknowledge the need for a wide receiver but I don't see one worth taking at #8. Remember Dez Bryant had unmistakable elite talent but still only went 24th overall due to questions. The top drafted receiver in Bryant's class was Demaryius Thomas who went 22nd overall. Michael Crabtree who was the best receiver in his draft class was taken 10th overall. I don't think Patterson is a better prospect than these guys were although I acknowledge he has great upside. Patterson is too unfinished to take at #8. Thank you. I think too many people here are assuming that the acquisition of a veteran QB means the teams won't be drafting QB at the top of the draft. I still think that a couple of QBs will be drafted in the top 10.

In the first chart, it merely shows that Jordan probably dropped into coverage more than the other pass rushers which is consistent with how he was used at Oregon. He often lined up in the slot heads up on a tight end or slot receiver. The second chart shows is described thusly: The goal is to describe how much help each player got from their teammates. A lower number means their teammate’s provided less pressure and that the pass rusher did more on their own. Jordan had the second lowest number. Also on that chart it shows that Oregon averaged 3.91 pass rushers on the plays where Jordan got pressure. That was the lowest average number of pass rushers and shows that he had the least help as far as number of pass rushers sent. The third chart is strength of schedule and there's nothing Jordan could do about that. The fourth chart shows that by a wide margin, Jordan got his sacks in the 3rd and 4th quarters, what the study showed as the "most clutch" time to get sacks. That study does almost nothing to make one concerned about Dion Jordan's pass rush abilities. However there is cause for concern regarding Jordan. He played the later part of the season with a torn labrum in his shoulder which affected his performance. He had surgery after the combine in late February and will not be able to lift weights for 3-4 months which will make it hard for him to increase his weight and strength, two of his bigger question marks. It's said that if anything drops Jordan out of the top ten that it will be his shoulder rehab.

I played on the same softball team with Ray for a few seasons. He's a good athlete. His brother, Richard who's an MD is also a good athlete.

I find it hard to believe that any Bills player is saying "WTF is the team doing?" when it's obvious that they signed a veteran player to improve competition at the position. And why are you willing to accept the $13 million over two years at face value when informed posters are waiting on the contract details which will spell the true story? To your first point, you have no idea what Kolb is being paid. As for your second point, sometimes meetings are for the purposes of a smokescreen. The others times they are doing their due diligence. Would you prefer the team to overwork and overprepare or underwork and underprepare?

Again, the Cowboys drafted Troy Aikman in the first round of the 1989 draft and then months later drafted Steve Walsh in the first round of the supplemental draft. That's two first round picks on QBs in less than one year. And I'd say those Cowboys teams were pretty competent.

As Caplan and others have surmised, Kolb will probably be a better fit in Marrone's offense than he was in Whisenhunt's and I said that in a different thread. I believe he'll have a better chance to succeed in Buffalo both because of scheme and because of talent. But one still has to acknowledge concern for the rate at which he was sacked in Arizona and his possible culpability in that.

I'll place "Kolb is a possible injury concern" in the minuses. I'm also gonna change the choice of "not sure" to "undecided" because that better reflects the position of several people who want to see the contract details.

In fairness to the objective discussion, there's also something to be said for a quarterback who holds the ball too long versus a quarterback who gets the ball out on time.

What is the size of the barn and where in the barn is he standing?

Updated Ledger: Plusses: Solidifies the QB position in a worst-case scenario (if we somehow don't get another QB in draft) Solidifies the veteran backup position (over just TJax) Solidifies the rookie QB mentor position (over just TJax) Didn't cost the Bills draft picks Allows the Bills to consider not taking a QB at pick #8 Allows the Bills more freedom to trade down from #8 Sends a smokescreen to the rest of the league as to the Bills QB draft intentions Lessens the pressure on the rookie QB Shows the Bills are being proactive in roster building Kolb probably fits the offense that Marrone intends to run Minusses: Might cause the Bills to underdraft or not draft a QB this year Might have cost too much money Is a lateral move or worse than Fitz Could possibly retard the development of a rookie QB by taking away reps Could possibly impair the team's ability to evaluate said rookie QB by taking away reps Could cause the team to win more games in a rebuilding year, thus hurting next year's draft position Shows the Bills don't know anything about roster building Kolb doesn't fit the offense that Marrone intends to run

Understand completely. Legit point for sure. And Hopeful's point about whether they draft a QB is also legit. This Kolb acquisiton only works for me if the Bills draft a QB no later than at 41. I like the move because I believe the Bills intend on drafting a QB no later than 41. Hope I'm right.

I'll put this on both sides of the ledger just cause there's a possibility that he's a bad fit (although it's hard to believe that he's as bad a fit as he was in Whisenhunt's offense).

A few others are thinking along with you on this. It's risky business though if it's only one guy they have targeted. Waiting until 41 certainly works better if there are a few guys the Bills like at QB. I agree with your take.

You raise several good points that I'm gonna add to the ledger. Thanks.

Great point and it bolsters something I said earlier. It's immaterial if Kolb is better than TJax or not. One will be better than the other. We will presumably retain the better player AND the competition will make both of them better. In other words there's no chance that bringing Kolb in will make us weaker at that position. It only makes us stronger, even if TJax wins the job.

I see the discussion is spirited and there are many respected posters on different sides of this opinion. Many people writing with conviction but no one really knows. And that's the beauty of the Kolb signing. It can only serve to confuse the other teams as to the Bills' intentions.