8-8 Forever?

What fans we have. Looking for a couple of ideas and I get "Bills TripAdvisor". Amazing. If we don't have the best, most geographically diverse and "know where the 10ct beers are on tuesday night " fans in the league I don't know who does. Thanks all.

ummm... not quite. Lets mimic what Morgan Stanley and the bidders are doing: (A) say the buyer holds the team 15 years and the EBITDA increases only 5% per year (because ticket prices go up and the gov builds him a stadium and that causes more revenue). Also, lets say the money our prospective owner is putting out to buy the franchise would was only going to get him maybe a 10% annual return otherwise (the markets being what they are now) : so , our owner will take the $38m of today's EBITDA cash flow and discount it at (10%- 5% ) = 5% (to account for the time value of money - just like your mortgage) for 15 years of cash flows. That result is $400M. that is what you would pay for 15 years of Buffalo Bills franchise cash flows. (B) But this is only one part of the valuation. At the end of 15 years the team is sold again, presumably for at least todays EBITDA multiple, which appears to be something like $1.2B / 38M = 31x EBITDA, an amazingly high EBITDA multiple, but hey the NFL is a monopoly and their are only 32 franchises in the greatest sports league in the world. So, assuming the 38m today has grown 5% per year for 15 years, that means EBITDA 15 years from now is say, $80m in what would be the year 2029. $80m times 31 multiple = $2.5B value of the franchise 15 years from now. Seems reasonable if the league continues conservatively along its present pace. Now the value in today's dollars of $2.5B received 15 years from now is around $600M at our 10% discount rate (also known as the opportunity cost of capital -- the return your could have gotten by investing in things other than the Bills). So, you add the $380m from valuation part (A) to the $600m from valuation part (B) and you get roughly $1B . So when you do the math the way investors do it, $1B for an NFL team is justified, not just a plaything. the investment actually pays off. I am assuming the new owner either does not have to participate in the cost of a new stadium (simply leases it for his teams' use) or if he does, he makes a return on all stadium revenues sufficient to provide a attractive return on his investment in the stadium

Yep. All good as Henderson gets the reps he needs and keeps his head out of the weed(s).

Road trip from DC to Charlotte for Bills game Friday. Is there a Bills Backers tailgate in the works?? Anyone on the board know ? thanks.

EJ is the guy this year. Period. Better start seeing the silver lining. If he fails, the whole thing gets blown up, we start all over (again) and maybe Orton will be the QB next year , but that's next year.

This thread? Cut.

put him in against the 1's and lets see what happens. but hey, never know at this level. look at Kyle W. -- high motor, quicks and 300+ and you can do some damage in today's NFL. don't not matter what your name is (fancy gammar added..)

If we get one starter -quality guy between Henderson and Kou, we should be happy. Draft is a crap shoot. eg. James Hardy was a disaster but Stevie was really good. Never know until they get to this level. Kou's knee may ultimately do him in. Worth a shot on both of them.

coulda shoulda woulda. move on. EJ is the guy until new ownership decides what they are going to do after this season. It all could change, even if we had picked Bortles. If the coaching staff is replaced (50/50 shot at this point) all bets are off with players drafted by this management team. See the big picture. Could be an entirely new set of characters 12 months from now.

+1. We will be doing this year what Pittsburgh did with Ben year 1. Play fast, run the crap out of the ball to keep the clock moving and play great defense and special teams. May not work in today's NFL, but they don't have much choice until EJ's brain and eyes catch up to this level. Is what it is. Andrew Luck he is not.

Just fans being fans. Fans = Fan-atics. If the shoes fits......

Hard to imagine a Toronto centric ownership group with a long term interest in keeping the team in WNY. Just cannot get there.

ridiculous thread. move on..

What? How do you figure that? I know one thing, The other teams certainly do not: Visiting teams get 40% of the gate for away games. Tickets to the Ralph are the lowest in the league on average. So visiting teams lose money big time coming to play at the Ralph vs. say, playing at Foxboro or at the Jets. Plus, Bills away games don't sell out because, well, they're the Bills and other than us, no one in the U.S. is interested in paying $150 to see the Buffalo Bills. So the existence of the Bills as an NFL franchise hurts game day gate receipts. Plus, the team is fetching a relatively low sale price because Ralph contractually trapped it in WNY (which is all good for us Bills fans), has the lowest gate receipts in the league and is in the smallest TV advertising market in the league (which hurts the TV deal). Let's not get carried away that the league, and especially the owners, are all that thrilled (from a annual $$ income perspective) about the Bills staying in WNY.

If a half dozen key starters go down by week 6, 6-0 becomes 0-6 pretty fast, no matter what the coaches do and the young team won't get better on crutches. turnovers lose games, significant injuries end seasons. Outside of the top half dozen teams, where mini-dynasties are still possible, player and coaching talent is pretty well spread evenly, turnovers and injuries decide your record ultimately.

Um. No. Be a long time before NTs get in the Hall; an relatively innocuous position with less impact on the game. . Plus he only put up a few great seasons. Need to do it for 8,9,10 years.

way too early to address this.... by end of season they will know more about where he fits, mainly because guys will go down with injury, he will get slotted in and then they will really see what he can and can't do Way too early to even speculate... he's just a big athletic body finding his way through his first NFL camp at this point

Injuries have so much to do with this. If no more Kiko's, I could see 10 wins if EJ improves. Health of the roster means everything for the vast majority of teams. 5 or 6 key guys go down, you can go 5-11 in a hurry. Stay healthy, the reverse can happen. No way to predict a season in the NFL since free agency and the salary cap. Can't build a deep roster anymore. Healthy starters you have a good chance to mostly win, injured starters you mostly lose. Sorry to waffle , but it is what it is.

Gonna be a loooong time before another Bills get in.... i think thats it for 10 - 15+ years... Mario maybe if he plays lights out sure. Tasker? No way. Guys from the 60's ? Only if they're in a very giving mode. All good. Let's stay in the here and now.

Good move. The problem is , Spiller likely gone next year and Fred the next.

Well, I was giving the article $1 of value. Inflation, you know...

Toronto is great... anyone who has been there will say that... Bills issue aside, good spot Toronto

Paying $1.3B will only $200M in debt financing is incredibly low leverage. 15/85 debt/equity split for a cash cow NFL franchise is a very inefficient capital structure. But I get it, the NFL wants old rich guys with their own money in the club, which is fine. Certainly reduces the number of potential bidders, which is good for WNY. This thing could easily be 40-50% leveraged in the real world

Ah yes, it is July.

Home town discount is a big factor here. Many bidders locked out of the process once it became clear the team could not be moved to a better market. Gotta give Ralph credit, he engineered it so the team could not be bid on by anyone other than homers. Pegs is overbidding big time relative to the value of the team, but as BB says, its not about the money to Pegs. All good . Go Bills.