HardyBoy

Am I wrong to think a lot of people on here are reactionary day traders, with thin stomachs, a severe lack of vision, and an oversized amount of sky is falling group think that goes in the face of all the data showing the desired milestones are being hit? I don't remember it being like that here before, at least not on this scale, and I've been here since 2007ish. Really interesting and at the same time concerning, because I think it talks more about our overall lack of patience as a society, than specifically this fanbase.

Yeah, really hope him playing the rest of the half doesn't lead to long term impact. Those additional hits once you have a concussion, even small ones can be really, really bad long term. I'd be good with him waiting until after the bye to come back, if not longer, regardless of if he clears protocol. You put a few of those critical mistakes together at the wrong time, and you get a blowout. Of course that by no means excuses the historically poor offensive performance, you xan still get blowm out regularily and look like a somewhat competent offense. That said, those mistakes are not random, the other team is game planning to put people into situations to make the mistake...the question is, is the same mistake happening consistently or are they learning?

I'm not worried about Edmunds either, just saying the blowout might not be a defensive scheme thing, and more savy qbs being able to manipulate LBs. Mariota and Watson got outschemed because they couldn't win post snap yet by tricking LBs to leave their spots with their eyes and pocket movement.

Or they have inexperienced LBs that got eaten up by experienced qbs that know how to take advantage of raw LBs...

Better comp, I think, would be Eagles, Rams and Bears. Also, as far as why would free agents want to come here? Money and culture. I think people are way underestimating the number of players who don't care about winning, because they stopped having fun playing football a long time ago. Imagine if you had to do the same thing for 20 years, and the only real reason you are able to do it is you were randomly born gifted enough. Sure, hard work counts for something, but you can't develop nfl talent if you don't have the skill set, it's too competitive. It's not like college, you have to be born with it. And it hurts, a lot, and it's not ever going to stop hurting even after you finish playing. And fans are total jerks in aggregate, and don't appreciate you or your worth as a human, or your future life. Do you really think you would have a driving passion to do something that 12 year olds love more than anything for 20 years of your life? I wouldn't. I want to grow, learn, become a better person and improve myself, my whole self, not just a sliver that people don't appreciate outside of a select few teammates. I would want coaches that care about my full self, and teammates as well. Winning is at best secondary for a huge number of players, if not the vast majority. I'd love to say I'd care the most about winning, but it has to get old, and they have families, and dreams outside of football. So the roster situation and lack of winning, I don't think that keeps them away, it's about the money, and I'm cool with that. That said, these contacts aren't guaranteed, so it's going to take a lot of upfront money because losing teams cut players. Also, you're probably targeting older free agents that aren't worried about a second big free agency contract, because losing can hurt your perceived worth.

Tommy John surgery would be a year plus for a qb? I know it is for pitchers, but in baseball, field players have a much shorter rehab, like half a year iirc. It's a different motion in football compared to baseball also.

Crazy thing...the d gets that fumble, game over he's a hero. I think going down and scoring tells a lot more than the picks, since he's a low round second year qb. That said he needs to be a third qb right now.

Haha, nevermind!

Just going to bump this.

Being able to roll cap makes this strategy less likely, but there is a cap floor right?

To be fair, I wasn't arguing my original point there, I was arguing the point that you said it wouldn't work because 5th round picks are more valuable than I think they are. All I'm saying is if the players aren't there in FA to fill the full cap space, I think the better strategy is at the very least not overpay and commit to overvalued players long term. Either save the cap space, or an interesting and potentially innovative approach is to fill it with high quality players on one year deals that you get for low round draft picks because they would be cut anyway. It's basically giving up very little to franchise tag another team's high quality player for a year when you have the cap space to do it.

Absolutely, but how many Bills 5th round picks can you say that about since KW got drafted? How many players out of all the 5th round picks since say 2000 league wide can you say that about? Let's use this as the imperfect criteria...how many 5th round picks have ever played or made a pro bowl?

I mean it's all about value right...a fifth round pick, typically provides replacement level value I would have to imagine, at I would think a salary not that much lower than the veteran minimum. A top level player on the last year of their deal is well above replacement level, and their contribution in that one season alone will surpass a random fifth round pick's contribution combined over four seasons.

This is kind of my response to the who are the bills going to sign with all the cap space question. True there might not be enough players out there worth the contacts it would take to fill the cap space next year; signing those players to long term deals is bad value, and would be sort of what like happened to a lot of teams in the NBA when the cap jumped a few years ago. The potential solution, trading for highly productive players that teams were going to cut anyway for money reasons only (few players play their final year since it is highly backloaded to where the bonus is done being paid so no dead cap), and you can get a high caliber player at significant value. On top of that, once the player leaves in FA, would the Bills get comp picks, or that doesn't count if done in a trade?

Will be willing and able to take on high priced one year deals of players in last year of contract.

Bill Belichick has had the best offense in the league how many times? Hot takes everywhere...do you have any data to back up that offensive coaches have better offenses, or are you just spewing hot takes? Every team you named stocked cap space and draft picks the year of the qbs rookie year and took advantage of their qbs rookie contact and stocked up big time. By the way, every single last one of those qbs was underwhelming to say the least their rookie year, or did not play. Sorry, it's just not a logical point, but well written and interesting to think about.

You understand this roster is like this on purpose this year, right? They escalated all the dead cap into this year, I know you know this. They should be praised, this will make the team light years better in the coming years. The eagles, bears and rams all went through this same thing in the last few years.

You'd rather be 7-9 with no hope of a Super Bowl? Clearly yes...so you're better with mediocrity than with escalating all the dead cap into a single season. Before you say this is about the comment, you would not be responding this way if they were on their way to a 7-9 season, and by the way this schedule is brutal for the first stretch. They aren't this bad, but with a bad culture they will give up before the schedule gets easier and the matchups are better and it won't matter. Not you personally, but this board sucks right now. So much reactionary non-big picture views with hot take after hot take. Wasn't like this back in 08, was much more measured then and the negativity was clever and witty, now it's just tiresome.

I think it's more he has a plan, and was counting on moving on from Woods and incognito after this season anyway. He isn't going to panic, which means he would be only looking at getting players on cheap one year deals. Were the players available on cheap on year deals significantly better than who they have now? Was it worth the risk to get rid of know players who you believe/projecting as replacement level who fit inbthe locker room with unknown players that are going to project at the same level?

Awesome post...a point with regards to the oline and the amount of blame to give to Beane...important to keep in mind that there were two sudden retirements this off-season. Obviously, totally different sport and situation, but the sudden loss of Jose Fernandez from the Marlins rotation could not be planned for, and set the team back years. Football is different because of the salary cap, and a much more open free agency system, but hopefully you get the point I am trying to make (it's late). Second, I think we're in trouble with this line big time, but it's one game (and the first game of the season), and it is important to note that week 1 is notoriously misleading, even when it so strongly validates our deepest beliefs. With the cap space, and available players, was the risk of the unknown worth trying to upgrade your hopefully close to replacement level players that buy into your process with what at best would be replacement level players? I don't know, but they know better, and I really am hoping that they got out schemed and out coached, because that's a lot easier to fix in season, necause they're not worthless coaches, not by a long shot, and everyone gets beat. The beauty of hiring people with a growth mindset (that is how I define this staff in two words, growth mindset) is failure is seen as an opportunity to get better. It's a process, trust it, chase that failure, because there is glory behind it.

If Allen had played that half, which isn't out of the question with the way the rest of the O played, you would have had to bench him (guessing the threat of his arm opened those running lanes, which was a dimension Peterman could, but wasn't bringing)...per the Tao of Peterman, you cannot, absolutely cannot, bench Allen or you might ruin him. So deep breath everyone...it's only week 1, and you literally should not base anything off of week 1, it's the one thing I've learned as an NFL fan (31-0), you have to wait until week 5 at least for the coaches to have enough film to really gameplan, plus you're judging a league that comes down to 3-4 plays each game (even this one), which is a tiny sample size until mid October. Also, that wasn't all on the qb. The d gave up 17 quick points then settled in and played fairly well. They were in the game at 17-0 and if they could have scored after that fumble and held until halftime it's a different game potentially. They get the ball to start the half, and it's totally different with the majority of the gameplan back in play. They aren't this bad, you have to wait on Allen until the rest of the offense is at least clicking as well as it can with the talent. Otherwise you risk the wrath of the Tao of Peterman.

Think Miami and Suh is a better comp actually. Bills didn't (and still don't) have a franchise qb contact taking a huge chunk out of the cap. The dolphins were on the verge of a potentially huge qb contract and it hamstrung them everywhere else. Suh played really well in Miami, but it was a dumb deal. Ha, so since we don't have a franchise qb contact on the books, the Mario/Mack comp might actually be more solid than Suh/Mack!

Would you have taken an 0-16 season for the chance to draft Peyton Manning? Not saying Allen is Manning, but the colts had to have a pretty crappy year to be in position to draft him. Would you give up this year to give Allen the best chance of reaching his ceiling? I would, we're talking about a potential 15 year run here that could be ruined by focusing on one year. Sort of like RGIII (his knee injury might have been the most mad I have been ever watching sports, he could have been so freaking good)...but you could look at the other way, and the Nationals could have won the world series, but held out Strasburg, thinking they had a 5 year window that ended up slamming shut basically after that one year...we're not in a window right now though, so why rush...

The winter was so hard and cold, froze ten feet 'neeth the ground? Or is that a game of throws reference? For what it's worth Martin is a big Grateful Dead fan, so maybe that's some inspiration for the book/show...

Given: 1) You absolutely cannot bench Allen once you start him, or you might ruin him. 2) You might have to bench Allen. Therefore Conclusion: You must start Peterman.