‘According to research from Chase Stuart at FootballPerspective.com, the average drive start after a punt from the opponent’s 1-yard line is around the 37-yard line. If the Bills had gotten the ball there with 1:25 left, and trailing by four points instead of two, their win probability would have been about 44%, per Pro Football Reference. Even backed up to midfield, Buffalo’s odds would have been about 36%.’