The Buffalo Bills should have tried 2-point conversions twice against the Tampa Bay Bucs: How it cost them and why it matters

‘Here’s another way to show how clear-cut this choice was: Our model estimated that the Bills needed to have a 28% chance of conversion to justify going for two. Based on league averages, their offense and the Bucs’ defense, we estimated Buffalo’s chance of conversion at 48%. That’s a huge difference that indicates there is no reasonable justification for kicking the PAT.’